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boringbiz_

Boring_Business

Verifiedactive
@boringbiz_

Nobody asks about your external rate of return

RosterHumor & Meme AccountsTrading & Markets
211,277 followers · 1,393 following · Last polled 3h ago
Perf. Score
78.9
Rank #22
Value Score
54.9
#116 of 273 priced
Median views
21K
p25 12K · trailing 7d
Followers
211K
+0.4% 7d
ER (impr.)
2.61%
eng ÷ impressions
ER (foll.)
0.57%
eng ÷ followers
Est. CPM
$31.29
QT-rate basis
WoW views
-17.8%
▲ rising

Rates & value · est. from 21K median organic views

fairly priced
Quote tweetbasis
$650
$31.29 / 1K views
Post
—
no CPM
Thread
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no CPM
Retweet
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no CPM
Value Score 54.9 · rank #116 of 273 priced$1419.21 / 1K engagementsrate age unknown (pre-audit import)

Trends

Follower growth
Median views / day
Engagement rate
View distribution · trailing-7d posts

Each blue dot is one organic post. The Performance Score ranks by the median (21K), not the mean (46K) — so a single viral post doesn't inflate a creator's reach. The p25 floor (12K) is the level 75% of posts clear.

Recent posts · ranked by views

PostPostedViewsLikesRepostsRepliesQuotesBookmarksER
This was the exact moment Zuckerberg realized that he will be a massive winner in the AI race OpenAI and Anthropic were desperately asking for regulation because tokens are being commoditized by open source alternatives The only option for them was to keep reducing token costs to compete. The only problem? They already made commitments for hundreds of billions in capex. At a certain price, the return on capital simply doesn’t make any sense So they came to the realization that the only way to sustain their trillion dollar valuations was to either: 1. Become entrenched through regulation by preventing other models from gaining share 2. Fight up market and become vertically integrated by building platforms in the application layer The second one is where Zuckerberg has a massive advantage vs both of the frontier model companies He already has a massive user base with nearly a third of the entire world as monthly active users He already has multiple platforms that are cash cows for his business, that also require very little capital investment each year Meta could stop spending on their family of apps tomorrow and these platforms would still generate billions of free cash flow each year In essence, he can subsidize losses on any AI platform, such as Muse, longer than any of his competitors can This gives him time to simply just bleed out Anthropic and OpenAI, especially when it comes to the consumer facing application layer of AI Trump refusing to give in to Dario and Sam’s requests is a massive win for Meta and Zuckerberg. That is why he can’t hold his smile herefrozen22d ago1.2M6.9K516294
86
2.7K
0.86%
Every single person you meet in your daily life is fighting a hidden battle that you know nothing about Send them a Zoom meeting link for an 8 AM call on Monday morning to finish them off4d ago889K36K2.4K1431052.5K4.58%
Investment banking analysts: "I did 6 internships, had a 3.9 GPA, was president of our finance club, and sent 100 cold emails to land this job." Investment banking MDs: "I was working in the mailroom, and someone asked me if I wanted to be a banker. I didn't even know what it was but said yes. Now I earn 7 figures a year."frozen14d ago775K8.2K22439276831.18%
This man was on peptides for 4 months Lost 26lbs and lost attraction towards men after being gay for 11 years Never seen a clearer bull case for an investmentfrozen10d ago539K7.6K17451111.1K1.66%
> Be Vinod Khosla 
> Born in India, move to US at 21 with basically nothing > Co-found Sun Microsystems at 27 > Join Kleiner Perkins Put $275k into Juniper, it returns $7B 
> Start Khosla Ventures, invest in OpenAI before ChatGPT existed 
> Also early investor in Doordash, Affirm, Instacart, Square > Get Ranked as the #1 VC FIrm in the world in 2023 by founders 
> Buy The Seattle Seahawks for $9.6B > Launch Reservoirfrozen7d ago513K3.3K17151151.1K0.91%
Realizing that your job is forwarding instructions from your boss to Claude and taking Claude’s responses to send them back to your boss https://t.co/dsNxobnjW0frozen17d ago501K8.5K345108471.1K2.02%
Just a reminder that your net worth going from $0 to $1M will make a much bigger difference in your lifestyle than it going from $1M to $5M or from $5M to $10M The early stages of wealth are absolutely life changing as you climb up the ladder. Then as you move up, each incremental dollar has lower and lower utility This is exactly why chasing wealth and money after a certain point becomes a selfish act, rather than something you are doing out of necessity I absolutely encourage people to chase their first few millions. But once you earn that, it is just as important to take a step back and think through what really matters to your life For a lot of people, the continued sacrifice is simply not the right choice and will do far more harm than good, especially when it comes to maintaining relationships with friends and familyfrozen21d ago480K2.1K14359209500.69%
Realistic day in the life for majority of young folks today - Wake up - Stare at 6.7 inch screen - Work on a 16 inch screen - Relax with a 55 inch screen - Stare at 6.7 inch screen - Sleep https://t.co/DqMOzFXOkOfrozen19d ago478K25K1.5K124782.1K5.99%
Job market so bad you have fifth graders sending networking chats on LinkedIn https://t.co/snxsxBWGf4frozen24d ago454K21K50569588504.86%
Bill Ackman on the investment process at Pershing Square "We typically have two members of the team do a deep dive on the company. They will start with the SEC filings, 10Ks, 10Qs, and conference call transcripts. Then, we will assemble the key issues we are trying to understand. We spend a fair amount of time on expert networks. We will talk to former employees, other industry experts, and competitors to get to the underlying issues. Then we build a model of the business. We get an assessment of how this pencils and what kind of return does it generate at the price we can buy it for today. Then that team will put together a deck and present it to the group. That two-person team is usually not Ryan [Pershing Chief Investment Officer] or myself. We do our independent assessment to be dangerous enough to ask the right questions. Then we have the balance of the team, another five people, who have not done work on the name. That group comes together to discuss an investment. Out of that meeting, we can make a decision to invest in the company. Or maybe we can say there are still some open issues. Then they will go back and do the work, and come back to the team"frozen19d ago375K1.2K8349221.0K0.63%
At what point do people agree that Mark Zuckerberg might be one of the greatest CEOs in history? Reminder that he has never held a job other than at Meta his entire life. Started the business from a college dorm and continues to run it to this day at the age of 42 Completely changed his entire branding for the sake of saving the business. Pivoted a bunch of times when necessary. Copied every last thing that was good about any of his competitors (Snapchat stories, acquired Instagram, Reels) On top of that, he is one of the only founders of a business that scale who hasn't gotten a second wife or a divorcefrozen29d ago306K6.0K225211395552.28%
There is incredible alpha today in buying small businesses at 5-6x multiples, using AI to streamline operations and build backend tools that can handle scale, and then layering on a bunch of small tuck-in M&A deals at 3-4x multiples. Once the company hits scale with proper integration, the goal should be to flip the business to a more sophisticated PE buyer or strategic at 7-8x multiples The only issue? This opportunity won't lie around forever. Fully expecting a massive rise in micro PE shops over the next 5 years that follow this exact playbook to amass massive fortunes for the founders and LPs There has never been a better time to startfrozen25d ago248K1.4K4994241.0K1.04%
The irony of Deutsche and Barclays as the last remaining major European investment banks cannot be overstatedfrozen27d ago244K1.6K661621840.78%
Sundar Pichai hearing that no one knows him https://t.co/4nnQDQYqbAfrozen23d ago220K92523311050.48%
Someone explain what Alexandr Wang is doing with a Bloomberg Terminal in his room Muse for finance next?frozen22d ago218K68963511390.40%
Some people might disagree with this, but genuinely think that investor relations and capital formation will become the most important role across all the large private equity firms The investing itself is more or less commoditized People are all paying the same multiples for these companies, everyone knows what the key diligence focus areas should be, and proprietary deals barely exist at scale Very few firms add any unique operational value, and financial engineering is widespread knowledge at this point The only competitive advantage you have as a business is how much capital you can raise from your LPs, and then deploying that capital to earn management fees Investor relations and capital formation will end up as the roles that firms actually care the most about, because that is what drives the earnings engines for the firmfrozen18d ago210K8351964152940.59%
Absolutely nothing is stopping you from achieving this if you just lock in for six months https://t.co/7fSJ5Dtm86frozen7d ago194K2.0K412363381.23%
The hierarchy of investment banking Analyst: create excel sheets and pretty powerpoint slides for 70 hours per week Associate: review excel sheets and pretty powerpoint slides for 65 hours per week VPs: give directions to create excel sheets and pretty powerpoint slides for 55 hours per week MD: find clients who you can show excel sheets and pretty powerpoint slides every minute of your weekfrozen23d ago192K824351651480.54%
Neoclouds such as CoreWeave and Nebius are backstopped by companies with trillion dollar market caps and access to the cheapest financing in the world NVIDIA has a 10% equity stake in CoreWeave and has committed to buy any unused capacity through 2032, up to $6.3B NScale, Lambda, Nebius and Iren have equity ownership and preferential vendor agreements with NVIDIA Microsoft has signed a contract and prepaid 20% of the value at Iren. NVIDIA has backed leases at both NScale and Lambda. Google has backed both Hut8 and TeraWulf through guarantees on the lease. Amazon has guaranteed leases for Cipher. Yet, people still believe that these companies are at risk of default simply from looking at credit default spread charts4d ago182K1.4K130102287551.34%
One of my favorite investing use cases of Claude right now is creating quick 20-page primers on public companies I am digging into. Has become my first step whenever I first start reading a 10K A hedge fund analyst would have had to previously spend 6 hours of their day putting this together for their PM. Now Claude can do it in the span of 10 minutes. Exact prompt below Create a detailed primer on [XYZ company]. I want sections broken down into segments, YoY reporting for FY22-FY25 and then the LTM period, visuals including what the company does, value chain, competitors and competitive differentiation, comps multiple analysis, simple DCF output, capital structure, and yields on debt. The output should be a 15-20 page Word doc that is well structured with thoughtful analysis. Also include recent price catalysts and any equity research updates in recent months. Include a section for news flow in the past few quarters with key takeawaysfrozen12d ago167K3.0K1956964.9K4.88%
Just finished listening to Jensen Huang with Brad Gerstner on the BG2 podcast Probably one of the best things you can spend 90 minutes of your time listening to this weekend. Highly recommend. Some of my takeaways from the conversation 1. The demand for compute will continue to be exponential. He once again cited inference as the biggest reason. Reasoning takes a lot more compute than simply spitting out answers from stored memory of knowledge 2. As more compute is used, the work and answer quality will also be better. This will lead to higher demand for that compute, leading to the exponential cycle that Jensen is referencing 3. The harness and tool usage have been the two biggest unlocks in AI over the last year. AI used to simply be a brain of knowledge. Now it has a skeleton around it that allows it to be useful. It is learning how to use existing tools to do better work without having to recreate tools from scratch each time. 4. The cost of intelligence will fall fairly quickly in the coming years. This will be driven by a combination of more compute coming online and better efficiency of models. No different than Moore's Law. Jensen still believes that the consumption of the intelligence (volume) will more than make up for the decline in pricing 5. The original GPT-1 cost $20M to train. If you train GPT-1 today, that number would be closer to $100. That is how fast the cost of intelligence is coming down. 6. The offset to this has been usage of the models and human ambition to build even better models. Despite cost coming down, usage of models has gone up 1M (x) times since GPT-1. 7. Jensen disagrees that work hours are going to come down. The more you learn, the more you want to do. Human ambitions have always existed to achieve and earn more. The bottleneck was the opportunity to do it. 8. Robotics is entering its ChatGPT moment. Similar to what Elon did with cars, every physical aspect of the world will soon be digitized with software and compute. Every massive corporation will have to reinvent itself as a technology company with AI 9. Safety is a core component of accelerating AI technology. When you think of a car, you don't just think of the engine. The airbags and braking systems are components of this car. Similarly, regulation and safety are core components of AI 10. NVIDIA's share of capex with the Neocloud customers is roughly 80%. With the cloud service providers, it is closer to 40%. Both of these numbers are growing every single year. 11. Even without AI, the semiconductor industry was already on its path to becoming the largest industry in the world. AI is the "X factor" that has accelerated that. 12. Moore's law is over. Before you could wait a year for your transistor cost to become cheaper. Today, if you wait a year, you will pay 2x as much 13. Analyst consensus estimates have been revised nearly 200% higher for future revenue and free cash flows vs. this time last year. Despite that, the stock is only +20% 14. Analysts questioned the need for general-purpose chips vs. custom chips. The reason that Jensen remains focused on general purpose is because it is fungible. Fungible = lower risk, which matters a lot when you are putting hundreds of billions of dollars to work 15. Global compute infrastructure spend was roughly $1T/yr. That old world was the retrieval way of doing computation. Jensen sees this number closer to $10T/yr in the near term, with roughly half of that spent on intelligence capexfrozen6d ago165K1.6K17050181.8K2.18%
Abdulrahman Alfozan was the only Saudi employee at OpenAI If the allegations end up being true, would love to know what his motivation was and if he was being propelled to do this by a third party He just made himself completely un-hirable for the rest of his life https://t.co/9hIaEcZSTs9d ago163K577325083250.61%
https://t.co/ltjNkhjKZRfrozen9d ago159K202241142740.32%
People still don't really appreciate how mispriced tokens are. Was speaking with a VP level private equity investor earlier today. His firm puts a cap on token spend at $500/mo for Claude. With it, he is saving 60 minutes per day at the absolute minimum, according to himself. He has built skills to quickly summarize IC memos from other deal teams, read banker CIMs, and build quick outputs from sellside financial models Now let's do some math on that number > Let's assume he fully reaches the cap at $500/mo every single month, the total cost is roughly $6000/yr (12x500/mo) > His salary is roughly $500K (excluding carry). Assume he works 65 hours/week for 50 weeks during the year. That puts his hourly rate at $154/hour ($500K salary/3250 hours) > If we assume he saves 250 hours/year in aggregate (1 hour of work saved per day), that brings the value of time saved to $38K/yr (300 hours x his hourly rate of $154/hr) > The ROI on that $6K/yr of Claude spend is $38K (net $32K or 540%) The two wrinkles here are 1. This analysis assumes that the firm can then allocate the 250 hours/yr saved at the same level of productivity 2. The ROI math will vary widely based on the salary of the person But the reality is that if ROI is anywhere even close to this for companies, then > Tokens are incredibly underpriced, and there is a lot of room to take pricing if you can provide the highest quality models (OpenAI / Anthropic) > Even if they cant take pricing across the board, you can bifucrate your customer base and charge more for tokens in higher productivity jobs. For example, providing a slightly better model catered to investors in exchange for 2x the token pricing > For a lot of businesses, spending more on AI is an absolute no brainer right now given where tokens are priced3d ago154K5111985132920.60%
Must follow account on here. Consistently good write ups on Chapter 11 and restructuring situationsfrozen21d ago145K57416603850.68%
Investment banking MDs after their second divorce https://t.co/WwWsxwqZd9frozen12d ago138K2.0K762572441.72%
The bond market is screaming at us to stop the deficit spending For almost two decades, America enjoyed a moat that very few countries in the world can afford, which was cheap cost of capital We should have taken these dollars and built out infrastructure like never before. Bridges, tunnels, roads, factories and everything in between Instead, we funded social services for boomers who already had too much, pushed on ESG and wokeness to folks who had too little, and awarded massive foreign aid to organizations who never deserved it Probably one of the worst allocations of capital in history on a national scale. History will not look back kindly at usfrozen29d ago129K4.6K429159254284.41%
Just spoke with a college student trying to break into investment banking coming from an Ivy League background Unsurprisingly, one of his main concerns was around whether this job and role will even remain the same in an AI world, and whether he would be better off doing something else Shared some advice that I think a lot more people need to hear 1. If you are making a career decision solely predicated on whether AI will disrupt the path or not, you should reconsider whether it’s the right path for you in the first place 2. There is nothing wrong with being curious about AI risk, but the first criteria for picking a career path that will take up the next 40 years of your life should be passion for the job 3. It doesn’t matter how AI proof a role is. If you don’t have a certain level of passion or inherent curiosity about it, you will never succeed anyway. Especially true for something like banking where you will be asked to put up 80 hour weeks on menial tasks as an analyst. Unless you know this is what you want to do, you will burn out and quit pretty quickly 4. You should go eyes wide open into every role that AI will likely cause some disruption. Doesn’t really matter if it’s finance, tech, law or something else. The baseline assumption should be disruption to some extent 5. The difference is that the best people in the field will utilize the AI tools to be even better at the job and raise the bar higher for everyone else. You are much more likely to lose your job to someone using AI effectively than to AI itself 6. The best defense you have against AI as young student today is to become an early adopter yourself. The key, however, is to balance learning these tools while keeping your critical thinking intact. Don’t lose one for the other 7. Creativity, imagination and sales will remain evergreen skills. Hone these as much as you can. These broadly apply to any career field, not just financefrozen26d ago127K305151321850.41%
There is an entire class of VPs and MDs in private equity who have never seen a single dollar of carry, despite working late nights and weekends for years in a row Anyone who believes that this career path is still the path to massive riches is clearly delusional Considering the amount of hours you will work, the return on investment on your time is actually incredibly poor compared to alternatives that are available to you A lot of the BizDev, Strategy and Product roles outside of finance have seen huge pay bumps in recent years You can work half the hours and still not take a big pay cut by pivoting to one of these roles Once you factor in that your carry might not even become real dollars for a very long time, the math of staying back in PE just doesn’t make sensefrozen27d ago126K1.1K414053311.23%
There is absolutely no alpha left in being an excel monkey better than anyone else This was already the case before AI, but more true today than ever before I am literally watching Claude in Excel build a forecast model better than 80% of analysts while I write this The hours of work it would take to put together a coherent analysis can now be done in minutes with proper prompting and instructions All the alpha in the investing world now sits outside of your desk. This includes talking to management teams, experts, former employees, competitors, trying the product itself, and so on Fundamentally think that the job of an investor will slowly start to resemble that of a journalist The real work will be done through conversations that an LLM cannot capture in the open web or inside of documents that everyone has access tofrozen7d ago125K2.0K121110286822.31%
Imagine leaking your investment bank’s entire deal pipeline from here https://t.co/lDDW9I4Wm7frozen29d ago125K1.0K27311080.92%
You know Sam Altman and Dario both messed up when you realize that every large Fortune 500 company is now on the side of Meta and Zuckerberg https://t.co/AlYs9urUPSfrozen29d ago124K1.8K633351601.67%
lmao “pure grit” meanwhile this guy is on a call with his VP getting yelled at because he made a typo on page 79 of the appendix of a slide deck that will never be openedfrozen28d ago119K1.4K44274931.30%
Watching the business with a $42B net loss in 2025 go public at a $2T valuation https://t.co/dxk1i2mc3Bfrozen23d ago117K5.2K47179442555.16%
The common trope of NYC finance bro barely even exists anymore Banking and private equity analyst classes are very much filled with nerdy kids who spent their college years staring at excel sheets, attending early career networking events, and studied technicals during their free time Not saying if it’s a good or bad thing. Just an interesting observation.frozen20d ago116K1.5K224832631.58%
Unfortunately, I think that we are at a point where AI has gotten good enough that new graduates add very little value to most jobs in finance This was always the case, but the rationale for hiring young talent before AI was two-fold 1. They soak up grunt work around the office, including tedious number entry into Excel, logo aligning, calendar invites, and administrative tasks on a deal 2. Train up the next generation of talent who can go on to become senior leaders in the future The first one has been pretty much already solved by AI to a large degree. Even if not fully replaceable today, the state of progress tells me that almost all finance grunt work will be handled by AI in the next 5-10 years. Probably even sooner The second one still creates incentive for companies to hire young graduates, but at a much slower pace than before. > AI leads to higher productivity across senior management and mid-level employees, freeing up their time to focus on bigger picture > Need fewer senior management and mid-level employees in the future due to this productivity boost, which pushes down the need for young graduates even further > Even if you dont completely shut down the analyst program, the number of analysts you need on the job certainly shrinks down by 20-30% at least, likely in the next 3-5 years > New analysts coming in are lower quality due to being reliant on AI during their college years and requiring AI to do any sort of critical thinking. This in turn hurts their ability to get promoted down the line All of these factors combined likely lead to a very difficult hiring environment for students studying finance in college today. The best piece of advice I can really give is to embrace the tools as fast as you can and try to keep your critical thinking and imagination skills intact while doing so. This is going to be much tougher than it sounds, especially as AI progresses in the next 5 yearsfrozen26d ago112K672344282600.90%
People don’t like hearing this, but your success in life is directly correlated to how long you are willing to delay gratification and enjoy the fruits of that success This is also why corporate jobs often tend to put you in golden handcuffs. As you move up the ladder, you are paid just enough to pursue the next upgrade in your life, but never enough to actually pursue freedom from the job itself People tend to fall for the shiny cars, watches, better home, clothes, and so on. Even when you get those things, the chase is on for the next home and the next watch. The people who actually end up free from the rat race are the ones who realized that delaying all of these things are actually the way you make it out, even if it means enduring more pain and struggle upfrontfrozen14d ago108K1.2K751284361.57%
“My 10K and 10Q refreshes every day to give me daily updates” https://t.co/BQBaxWVk4Lfrozen27d ago101K1.0K23151801.13%
There is something magical about the male 5’7 height archetype > Mark Zuckerberg (Meta) > Jeff Bezos (Amazon) > Jensen Huang (NVIDIA) > Tony Xu (DoorDash) > Mike Bloomberg (Bloomberg) > Napoleon Bonaparte > Martin Luther King Jr > Albert Einstein > Benito Mussolini > Alexander Hamiltonfrozen24d ago98K1.2K5872173481.70%
Talk to anyone outside the finance and tech bubble on this platform. The average person still has no idea Claude Cowork even exists Anyone above the age of 35 is still using these platforms like a chatbot that just spits out some answers. None of the agentic capabilities are well known Most folks above the age of 45 don’t even know how to toggle between Opus and Fable on their Claude interface That is how early we are. If you are looking at the price action of AI infrastructure stocks and concluding that token usage has peaked, you are so deeply mistakenfrozen5d ago92K1.8K8687154622.61%
Banking and private equity hours are so bad because you are literally stuck on useless calls the entire day By the time you actually start your tasks, it is already 6 PM and know your night is going to get burned The best AI solution to reduce hours is not to actually make the tasks faster, but to figure out how you can reduce the time of the calls where nothing of substance is actually accomplished Maybe it is done through AI summaries or note taking, but thinking there has to be a better solution out therefrozen23d ago92K63624234960.85%
When you realize that you can just invest based off vibes instead of discounting future cash flows back to present value https://t.co/fh4FXzJEYVfrozen14d ago92K1.4K792363772.03%
Working in finance will make you realize that earning wealth is very different from achieving freedom, and vice versa Most of the MDs and PMs in the field have enormous levels of wealth. But very few of them have the freedom to simply just walk away from the industry and leave it behind forever Moving up the ladder slowly one step at a time forces changes in lifestyle along with it. After you have met your basic needs, you start to want the next expensive watch, vacation home, and so forth. This is why I am somewhat convinced that the best way to attain wealth is to actually just work towards something for long periods of time with no reward and have one singular payday that compensates you for the effort Might also explain why wealth is viewed differently in NYC vs SF. Tech entrepreneurs mostly see the singular payday, while finance is a slower climb, which tends to invite lifestyle creep much more often4d ago91K1.4K783334292.10%
An investment banker, private equity investor, venture capitalist and operator all walk into a NYC bar The owner brings out drinks for each of them The investment banker takes a sip and tells the bartender that he can get the owner 14x EBITDA for the place. The owner says he is not interested. The banker then slides him a business card and says to call him when he is ready The private equity investor tells the owner he already has financing lined up to buy the bar. He can cut in the owner for a 20% earn out, but will probably fire half the staff. He points to the vodka bottle prices and notes a lot of room here for “margin expansion” The venture capitalist, meanwhile, asks the owner if he has thought of incorporating AI into the drink pouring process. He advises the owner to think from first principles and claims he can write him a check at a $2B valuation. The only condition? The owner must convince A16Z or Sequoia to invest first. The operator is the only person who figures out how the bar functions, where kegs are stored and how the employees are paid At the end of the night, the bill arrives and the operator is forced to pick up the tab since he is the only one who remained sober. He asks his friends to pay him back The banker offers to handle the payments in exchange for a fee The private equity guy asks him if he can leave the money as owed debt, and he will pay with interest over time The venture capitalist tells him to mark up the value of the tab but says he can’t pay it for at least another five years. The next morning, the operator wakes up to 3 LinkedIn posts from each of his friends on what it takes to run a successful bar in NYC3d ago85K9905719142941.62%
How did Anthropic manage to drop better Microsoft Office plugins than CoWork and better Google Office plugins than Gemini? Team is absolutely cookingfrozen16d ago83K1.4K522922262.13%
Doctors: “yeah my job involves actually seeing patients, and it’s not like AI is ever going to give you a prescription” AI: https://t.co/kxMjd3NurNfrozen17d ago83K55024190890.83%
Finance students who spent 4 years learning discounted cash flow models in college after they graduate and realize that no one actually uses them in the real world https://t.co/KYdaodw1rYfrozen20d ago82K1.5K7126121532.11%
Jensen Huang recognized that five of his biggest customers were trillion dollar hyperscalers that were each building their internal alternative to NVIDIA GPUs In response, he financed and provided backstops to build up an entire ecosystem of neo cloud companies, the poster child being Coreweave Coreweave buys GPUs from NVIDIA and then rents that compute back to other companies, including the hyperscalers themselves In essence, Jensen helped build an intermediary between himself and the hyperscaler customers, with the goal of diversifying his revenue basefrozen8d ago82K1.2K1382587982.67%
The beauty of American capitalism is that it creates a natural cycle of washing out the old guard to make room for new innovation and technology It is a function of economic incentives being set the right away, social mobility being accessible, and most importantly, the culture of America Very few nations in history have created the results that America has been able to produce. Truly incredible countryfrozen25d ago78K552461421871.03%
Banking analysts who spent 2 years learning excel shortcuts watching Claude build an identical LBO model faster than them https://t.co/dwgmpUV0jrfrozen22d ago77K1.6K701672232.46%
The entire AI infrastructure complex is now in a bear market. Drawdown since all time high > GE Vernova: -22% > Quanta: -24% > Eaton: -18% > Vertiv: -47% > Bloom Energy: -32% > Constellation Energy: -33% > Coreweave: -67% > IREN: -64% Either a falling knife or a generational buying opportunity, depending on which side of the AI debate you sit on5h ago77K614483161671.13%
Working in finance for long enough will make you realize just how many people are successful in their careers, purely because they know how to build and keep relationships, rather than because they have any merit to offer Almost every major firm you can think of has a few senior leadership folks and investment committee members who are simply there because they know the right people and can bring in the right deals. Some of them have horrible investment acumen, tend to be narrow-sighted, and often suffer from analysis paralysis. No one actually respects their judgement when it comes to making the right decision on an investment. But at the same time, the firm can't let them go because they act as the sourcing engine for the business. They are extroverted, know the right bankers and management teams, and can bring in bespoke deals that others could not have sourced Makes you realize that there are truly two ways to be extremely good at your job in finance 1. Actually be good at your job, invest well, be an expert at an industry, and add value based on merit. 2. Be the person that everyone calls when they need a capital solutionfrozen20d ago76K1.3K673394542.45%
“Treasury yields can’t go any higher” Treasury yields: https://t.co/OaeJp9mV4lfrozen22d ago75K4.2K24031101506.12%
Just spent time talking to a few young analysts who just graduated out of college and currently working as banking analysts. Roughly 50% of their time is spent on ChatGPT, Claude or using the AI plug in tools on Excel or PowerPoint The Associates and VPs give absolutely no guidance and expect analysts to figure out modeling and technicals by themselves using AI chatbots Many juniors have even been told “just have Claude do it if you can’t figure it out” Seniors simply have no more vested interest in training any of the analysts because they will likely not even be required in a few years People used to go down this career path for a few reasons 1. Incredible learning opportunity to build a niche knowledge base and learn technicals early in your career 2. Mentorship from seniors and relationships with folks who are incredible at their jobs (clients, MDs, other peers) 3. Money and an incredible job title that signals to future employers that you are built for working hard The first two are being eroded away in a world where AI has already been trained on everything you can learn, and seniors simply no longer want to train you up Who knows how long the third will last given the lack of the first twofrozen21d ago75K845345562701.62%
Article on WSJ today noting how Warren Buffett still spends his evenings browsing through random videos on YouTube Men truly only want one thing. A good meal, an investment portfolio of cash flowing assets, insurance operations that generate float for new investment ideas, and hours to spend on YouTubefrozen16d ago74K1.6K12721184913.11%
Talking to a few friends who are involved in recruiting at their investment banks and private equity funds Common consensus seems to be that there is a very high demand for junior associates right now, but the new graduate analyst class sizes are likely to fall off a cliff pretty soon People with a few years of experience are now more productive than ever, thanks to AI. A lot of people in this category have now left the industry to work at tech startups and BizDev roles at companies where the pay vs WLB dynamics make more sense As a result, there is a ton of vacancies being created, and there are not enough junior associates to fill in the demand Analysts are a completely different story. Quality has gone down as a result of excessive reliance on AI through college. Most are actually less helpful vs just using Claude or your LLM of choice to do grunt work involved in these roles Think we all came to the conclusion that it is only a matter of time before these LLMs become better than junior associates toofrozen18d ago70K639302821951.29%
Investment banking MDs: “Yeah I work in banking. Have to pay for my kids private school somehow” Investment banking analysts: “Yeah I do mergers and acquisitions at an elite boutique shop. My models move markets and dictate the outcome of multi billion dollar transactions”frozen5d ago70K1.1K321511051.86%
Smart man https://t.co/ARt91reQAsfrozen12d ago69K1.4K191211072.24%
Going from the top 10% to 1% at something takes so much effort that it makes no sense if you are looking at it purely from a time efficiency perspective But that valley is where all of the returns sit if you want to go from being good to being great Most people overestimate how hard it is to be the top 10% at something, and underestimate how hard it is to be top 1% at something The ones who are willing to do the work to cross from one line to the other receive all of the gloryfrozen13d ago67K488361451551.04%
Average Saturday as an elite boutique investment banking analyst btwfrozen18d ago66K529990630.92%
Gen Z private equity associate presenting the deck to IC that he didn’t write a single word of https://t.co/m9NQ5tLo6pfrozen8d ago65K37020163830.75%
He is not broke. He is just waiting for frontier token costs to deflate so the unit economics of his startup makes sense https://t.co/67IdU7XMZxfrozen25d ago64K1.9K961641283.28%
Talking to a junior associate who works at a very well known private credit shop > First pass on every VDR and summary of documents posted done via ToltIQ > First pass at internal downside model done via Claude in Excel > Industry and company research done through ChatGPT and AlphaSense Said his biggest pain point right now is that the tools don’t communicate with one another. For example, research that AlphaSense spits out cannot be easily incorporated into Claude in Excel, unless you give it the response and prompt it accordingly Moving back and forth between tools is somewhat annoying because the context memory from one is not stored in the other. You still have to give each tool context on the deal, company and transaction dynamics separately If the tools could speak with each other, his value add would more or less be diminished. VPs above him can just prompt AI and receive outputs that are 80% of the way there to what a junior associate can put together Scary times to be a junior analyst or associate right now2d ago64K626315033871.71%
Just spent some time playing around with the various finance AI tools, and hard not to believe that the analyst job is absolutely cooked at most investment banks and PE firms With a simple prompt, most of the excel plug ins can now build granular three statement models just as good as any 24 year old finance graduate with a couple years of experience The information gathering moat is absolutely gone. Stuff that used to take multiple hours now gets done within the span of a few minutes A lot of investment firms would have dedicated off shore teams just to spread historical financials. That job will likely not even exist in the next 18 months or so Your only moat as an investor or banker today is purely the relationships you hold. Knowing the right people, getting into the right deals, and being able to draw parallels between various situations to come up with conclusions A retail investor with a $20 Claude subscription can do what investment firms used to hire entire analyst classes to work on Sure, you still need some junior folks to train them up to be the next generation of VPs and MDs. But beyond that, there is absolutely no reason to hire junior talent right now Scary times to live in. The capabilities were good when they came out, but it has gotten at least 5-10x better just over the last 6 monthsfrozen22d ago64K8646558103642.13%
Many investors are discovering discounted future cash flows from first principles https://t.co/KDTFDOK5fc22h ago63K1.1K422351882.14%
This is my quant https://t.co/Pj411gbtdXfrozen17d ago63K1.1K53421012.00%
"So you gave Meta access to your entire platform and business using their API?" "Yes, Dave" "And they became the funnel for all web traffic to your website?" "Thats right, Dave" "And now they will take your business idea and build their own internal version that will kill your company?" "Correct." "And what will you be doing about it?" "Nothing, Dave."frozen29d ago63K3631151500.68%
“There is no more HR? Time to ask out Becky from back office on Microsoft Teams” https://t.co/oJlSdYhdR7frozen27d ago61K3441171510.68%
First year private equity associates presenting to their IC do a better job than this Have always wondered what qualifications are used to hire these folks. Absolutely incredible9d ago61K577132401161.20%
Very telling that not a single person asked how many shares are actually outstanding for each company. 1000 shares in a company that has 500M shares outstanding is very different from a company that has 13B shares outstanding https://t.co/PFYlXcmLatfrozen14d ago60K3743171450.74%
If you thought Mamdani was an outlier event, you have been sleeping under a rock The future will be a struggle between the capitalist technocrat right and the socialist leftfrozen29d ago59K54718221401.06%
Seeing the same trend across many of my friends and former colleagues who moved over to the buyside Private equity used to be the promise land for ex investment bankers who wanted a shot at a massive carry check Now, realizations have slowed down and firms are not raising funds at the same pace anymore Many are realizing that the higher base salaries in banking combined with a more stable bonus number might actually fare much better off vs working the same hours in private equity with a lot more uncertainty The M&A and IPO boom that investment banks are enjoying today have been entirely concentrated in the large caps, which private equity doesn’t benefit from From Matt Levine’s Money Stuff newsletter todayfrozen28d ago59K479222011861.19%
“Yeah man, just one more bonus and I swear I will quit next year. Expenses are just high right now because I moved apartments from Murray Hill to Flatiron. My rent went up quite a bit since I am no longer living with roommates. Also, spent last year’s bonus on a watch and paying down some of my student loans, so didn’t have much left over. But this year for sure. I am going to save my base salary and bank the bonus so I can just get a 9-5 and travel. I said the same thing last year? Yeah, I know man. But these expenses just keep creeping up. Inflation isn’t helping either. But this year for sure”frozen22d ago58K60417101901.25%
People underestimate just how many folks are being bankrolled by the pockets of mom and dad, especially in larger cities I would always be surprised at how friends in NYC were affording the apartments they live in Many were struggling to find jobs or working in careers that paid very little money Nine out of ten times, the answer was because their parents were subsidizing rent and daily expenses That is how you end with situations where someone might be working a $70K job in marketing while living in a $10K/month condo in the heart of Manhattan with no roommates Makes absolutely no sense until you try and get to know themfrozen9d ago56K789353631171.75%
Investment banking analysts realizing that they can give comments to Claude directly from their phone like their Managing Director https://t.co/Hs4UjF3iSB1d ago56K90029611421.93%
Pretty convinced that your success in life is directly correlated to how embarrassed and uncomfortable you are willing to be in front of the entire world for long enough periods of timefrozen25d ago56K2.3K13620104175.16%
The most commonly used AI tools for financial analysts right now, based on my conversations with juniors over the last couple weeks > ChatGPT Sol + Rogo, Hebbia for deep research > AlphaSense for expert call summaries, equity research screening and company primers > Claude in Excel & Word, works best with Opus 5.5 > Claude for news pulls, daily reminders etc. > Claude Cowork for automated desktop tasks > ToltIQ for uploading and scouring through VDRs > Bloomberg (ASKB) for pulling data that exists on the terminal What else do people recommend?frozen11d ago55K783503029453.30%
Absolutely insane statistic The S&P 500 will add more EPS this year alone compared to the combined EPS gained during 2016-2021 https://t.co/LzvVItrEYyfrozen11d ago54K6155228161251.53%
20 pieces of advice for junior finance analysts and associates, many of them learned from personal experience 1. Health is wealth. Successful careers are marathons, and the most important part of them is staying in the game by avoiding burnout. 2. Perception matters way more than you think. People notice the small things, much more than you think. 3. You must be confident enough to come off as reliable but humble enough to know when it is time to listen and follow instructions 4. There is no way to avoid long hours in your 20s if you want to be successful. It is the rite of passage 5. Excel matters for the first few years. Then it is all about relationships. Who you know > what you know 6. Raise your hand for the most complex transactions and situations you can get yourself staffed on. The experience gained will be more valuable than the short-term suffering endured 7. Reputation carries with you through the entire industry. Finance is a small world 8. Most tasks given to you early on will be incredibly mundane. Doing the boring things well is how you get to do the more exciting things. 9. Having the right mentor can change your life. A mentor is someone who vouches for you in rooms that you don't have access to 10. Your job is to make your boss look good in front of their boss 11. Successful analysts tend to be maniacally organized and are incredible at juggling multiple tasks/deals at once 12. Ability to tell a coherent story matters more than how accurate or precise your numbers really are. More fiction is written in Excel than anywhere else 13. No forecast models are accurate. Some are useful. 14. Specialized knowledge makes you valuable to your firm. The fewer people who can do what you do, the better your chances of moving up the ladder. 15. There is no excuse for errors made twice. Everyone messes up the first time. But once you are shown how to do something, remember it. 16. Having a great elevator pitch still matters more than you might think, especially in roles where you are interacting with new people on a daily basis 17. Information edge is rarely gained by just sitting behind your desk. Go outside and talk to people. Attend conferences and develop your network 18. Accounting is to finance what history is to futurists. To forecast the future, you must learn the past. In business, the past is written in accounting statements. 19. Life is shorter and more unpredictable than you might think. Save some money along the way for a rainy day. Your 40-year career plan can get very easily derailed by a bad injury or accident 20. The most valuable thing you will leave the industry with will never be the money. It will be the relationships you built along the wayfrozen7d ago54K843682749093.41%
Just spoke with a successful ex-PM at a hedge fund who left to run his own holding company buying out small businesses across middle America The most valuable advice he had was to figure out whether you are a better chef or restaurant owner as early as possible in your career There is nothing wrong with having a preference for one over the other. The best chefs in the world and the best restaurant owners in the world both end up quite successful on a relative basis However, some people are much better chefs attempting to be a restaurant owner, while others would be better owners attempting to be a chef Smart and talented people run into problems when there is a fundamental mismatch between what they are trying to do vs what they are actually good at From his own personal experience, he was the chef for a long period of time involved in the day to day of managing capital, but came to realize that being the owner was much more fulfilling for his own personal goals3d ago54K629281403281.86%
When she opens her phone and it was on your FINRA BrokerCheck page https://t.co/4AuER7WQT2frozen5d ago53K1.4K3775832.83%
BlackRock just released a 23-page update on their views for 4Q 2026 Some charts that caught my eye 1/ Monthly change in US payrolls shows signs of a strong job market https://t.co/q0v56PLCIDfrozen27d ago52K31636503241.32%
Ken Griffin does not believe that artificial intelligence will ever replace investors According to the Citadel CEO, the fundamental job of an investor is research, akin to being a journalist. Trading is simply how that research is monetized. There are bits and pieces of the research process that artificial intelligence can automate, but the narrative still needs to be assembled by a human2d ago51K6985737223122.20%
https://t.co/UavZvxanDXfrozen8d ago51K59623690.27%
Favorite use cases and some tips for using Claude in Excel as a junior analyst in a finance role > Always have it take a first stab at your model. Instead of starting from scratch, Claude can set up the basic template and shell to work off of > You can drop in PDFs and word docs directly into the Claude add in. I love using this to quickly spread historical numbers. > Whenever you finish making edits to Claude’s work, you can ask it to track the changes and save to its memory. This allows it to remember the formatting and type of analysis that you prefer doing. It does a decent job of remembering it for next time you ask it to do the same thing > Whenever you are done with an excel model, use Claude to do a spot check on all the formulas and make sure things are flowing correctly. It often catches some small errors that I would have missed myself > Claude is fantastic with large datasets such as revenue cubes or customer lists. You can ask it to summarize key takeaways, put together charts, or lay out the data in a cleaner format that helps visualize the information > Claude can read screenshots directly inside of Excel. If you want it to replicate a chart or graph from an image, you can just drop in a snip on Excel. Then have Claude rebuild that chart directly onto Excel or just have it spread the data from that chart on your spreadsheet > Claude can delete and add tabs. If you are asking it to create new analysis, I typically have it create it in a brand new tab so it is easier to audit. Typically good idea to give it the instruction to never delete tabs from your file > Turn off “accept all edits” or save the file before you ask Claude to do work. If it will replace existing data or formulas, you want it to ask for permission before doing so. Alternatively, save ahead of time so you can always go back to the old version if neededfrozen5d ago51K656342228923.16%
Earning $100K in 2016 is inflated adjusted equivalent to earning roughly $140K in 2026 Within the span of a decade, we have seen 40% inflation. This is based on CPI numbers, which itself understates inflation across many key items that we buy everyday The reality is that the national debt levels have only left us with one choice. We must grow ourselves out of debt, which itself is inherently inflationary Unless you own assets, you will get left behind. There has never been a worse time to be a simple salary man with savingsfrozen10d ago50K717492271581.91%
Many such cases https://t.co/TP28buUVSMfrozen13d ago49K718201881211.81%
Ken Griffin could do the funniest thing right nowfrozen13d ago48K255540490.65%
Investment bankers heading to pick up their Chipotle slop bowl and Starbucks cold brew from one stop in the middle of Midtown Manhattan https://t.co/811OtVvDnAfrozen14d ago47K438951281.02%
Progress of AI in finance, from someone using it every day in an investment seat March 2026: “AI is kind of like an intern. It takes some tedious tasks off my plate but always need to check its work. Things are often pretty wrong” June 2026: “Wow, it is more like an analyst now. It can do things with decent accuracy, but needs a lot of detailed instructions. It still hallucinates every now and then” October 2026: “AI is doing almost all of my excel modeling and grunt work. I feed it assumptions and instructions, but it can get 80% of the way there by itself without needing any special prompts. I can ask it to be creative with the analysis it puts together, and it does a pretty good job” The change of pace has been incredible to watchfrozen5d ago47K803554542362.42%
My couple cents on this question > Going into private equity is still absolutely worth it. DPI has not been favorable for the industry for a whole host of reasons over the past few years, but this is not an industry going away any time soon > Banking is a fantastic learning ground as a junior analyst. However, the years you spend as an Associate is really just doing more of the same. Contrast that to the buyside, where your associate years are being spent learning a different skillset and mentality (investor vs advisor) > Private equity certainly allows you to deep much diver into a business than you would as a banker. There are VPs and MDs who advise companies and still have no clue how the company’s products really work. The way to think about it is breadth vs depth. Banking allows you to have more breadth as you are pitching and talking to new clients all the time. PE allows you to have more depth where you will dive much deeper into the companies you move forward in diligence for > Both jobs (banking or PE) are great for building technical skillsets, soft skills and attention to detail. However, I would argue that the PE skill is much more transferable to other jobs vs just being an advisor on transactions > Depending on the type of PE shop you go to, you will get more opportunity to be operationally involved and really see how “the sausage is made”. Some PE shops also have their associates plug into their PortCo FP&A teams to drive value and help with analysis for tuck-in M&A or turnarounds. In the case you want to go down the CFO route, those skills are much more valuable > To the extent you care, I also think people generally have a more favorable view on PE investors vs bankers in terms of industry acumen and knowledge. Bankers are generally viewed through the lens of a salesman vs PE professionals through the lens of an investor. This is not always necessarily accurate, but that’s generally the perception > Recognize that at the end of the day, both jobs are heavily sales driven at the top. You are either selling yourself to clients or to your investors4d ago47K32391151891.15%
The price of career success at the highest levels is giving up countless hours with your spouse, children, parents and friends Once you recognize that, you come to the realization that pursuit of success is often an incredibly selfish journeyfrozen28d ago46K1.4K613032423.72%
In the future, it will seem trivial that we had entire roles dedicated to generating dashboards, crunching data manually, and updating excel sheets The kid being born in 2040 will look back at the tasks that humans are still doing in 2026 in complete disgust To them, many of the jobs that exist today will look no different than how we view slavery in the 1800s or smoking cigarettes during the mid 1900s They won’t believe that humans actually used to spend their weeks in cubicles pushing through jobs that takes agents a few minutes to completefrozen13d ago46K872555761472.47%
Investment banking MD and analyst at the client closing dinner (the MD ruined his weekends for 4 months straight) https://t.co/yy8vc3EOT1frozen20d ago46K5021550471.24%
Just took a stroll through Central Park. Despite the rain, everyone is outside having Sunday brunch, drinking with friends and enjoying their lives. Not a single person was talking about the treasury yield or oil prices hitting another record high in recent years. Very concerningfrozen25d ago45K88625251662.21%
Private equity firms when their lender refuses to amend and extend the loan at the same rate with no new equity dollars put in https://t.co/duDNk0nXvcfrozen19d ago45K5041072611.30%
The best piece of investment advice I ever received was from a very successful hedge fund PM: “the desk is a dangerous place to view the world from” If all you are doing is staring at your excel models and charts to come to conclusions as an investor, you are doing it wrong Even more true today in the age of AI where any sort of information and quantitative alpha is increasingly being competed away The best source of differentiation today is on site diligence, speaking to customers and employees, and actually building relationships with management Treat the job more like a journalist than a numbers jockey, and you will have much higher levels of success in an investment analyst seatfrozen21d ago44K835501562772.69%
https://t.co/qsF0HCs8Yffrozen20d ago44K1.2K4430342.86%
This is a fantastic decision and long overdue There is no reason why taxpayers should be subsidizing education for career paths that are unlikely to generate any return on investment for society You can always still pursue the degree if you want, but pay out of pocket for it so the burden is not shared by everyone elsefrozen24d ago43K42516572301.22%
Actually insane how poor sound quality is on AirPods, especially when you are trying to take calls or meetings All you can hear from the other person is background noise and everything gets blurred in between Seems to also malfunction every now and then where one side works correctly, while the other is still having issues finding your phone Not to mention, the classic problem where charging seems to be uneven and battery runs out on one side much faster than the other If anyone has any recommendations for great headphones, would love to hear themfrozen22d ago43K1801220340.55%
Anthropic capital obligations over the next few years is $518 billion, split across 1. $100B owed to AWS over 10 years 2. $15B/yr owed to Space X through May 2029 3. $200B commitment to Google Cloud 4. $80B of cloud commitments with Lambda and NScale 5. $50B with Fluidstack 6. $30B with Azure As reminder, this company reported a net loss of $42B for 2025 At the $2T valuation, you would be paying roughly 436x 2025 revenue, or 10x estimated 2028 revenue Even if you are generous with margins and growth ramp, there is simply no way they can afford to pay these obligations with real cash flow They are going public because they have to, and I suspect there will be massive debt and equity raises that follow post IPO as wellfrozen23d ago43K516422281261.65%
Investment banking analysts after realizing that they are receiving live comments from an AI version of their VP https://t.co/lgRyt2mzTXfrozen21d ago43K319640390.86%
PWP analyst class after getting taken over by Piper Sandler https://t.co/joWaT4mdVtfrozen16d ago43K635330451.61%
Honestly think that a combination of social isolation combined with social media has prompted a generation to completely abandon the traditional corporate career path It’s tough to want to put your best foot forward at a job where you might be able to afford a home almost a decade down the line, assuming all goes well Then you open up your social media app and see creators living their life, doing vlogs, traveling all the time, and still out earning doctors, lawyers and the most prestigious corporate jobs you can think of Sure, these folks are outliers but that is what social media blasts at you 24/7. The perception that a corporate job is your exit path to a good life has been destroyedfrozen17d ago43K389273011251.34%
Life should be lived like EBITDA adjustments It should always be positive, and sometimes, completely delusional3d ago42K1.0K1071051172.96%
The irony is that it is much more profitable for a frontier labs to target verticals and industries dominated by highly paid professionals rather than jobs occupied by lower paid employees The math PhD doing research is more likely to be automated first before the Starbucks barista who studied political science in college An English major with a great sense of creative writing is less replaceable than a finance analyst who simply knows how to build DCFs in Excel or a computer science major who can write code Highly paid professionals tend to be in fields where the tasks are rule based in nature. There is a clear sequence and logic behind the job that you do, but ironically, this is also what makes these roles highly prone to disruption by AI tools and platforms My contrarian view is that companies are going to increasingly move towards hiring more humanities majors with creative problem-solving skills, rather than just hiring for pure technical talent Won't happen right away, but expect this trend to accelerate over the next 5 years or so The technical portions of most jobs will be done by agents in the future. What will remain is creativity and the ability to bring unique perspectives to look at a problem. First principles thinking will be the most valuable skill set of the future. If I were a student today, that is what I would be optimizing forfrozen12d ago42K4092436121701.53%
Imagine spending 4 years learning how to discount cash flows and looking at comparable market multiples when you could have outperformed everything by just owning pieces of cardboard This is not normal https://t.co/N2UVWuNSmvfrozen13d ago42K39718317641.23%
There is a massive shift happening in the industries where private equity is generating most of its returns During the 2010s, it was healthcare and software. Both are relatively capital-light industries with high margins In the last five years, this has flipped. Hard asset industries such as utilities and industrials have been the source for most of the exits Data from Morgan Stanleyfrozen25d ago40K439371022481.82%
The biggest recession indicator is that you don’t hear about investment banking and private equity MDs having entire second families at the same rate that you used to26d ago40K7602622552.11%
Remote work is one of those concepts that sounds great on paper and is probably pretty nice to have for a short period of time But the long term effects on your mental health and career progression is detrimental. This is more true the younger you are Lack of social interaction and visibility for promotion is the worst mix of outcomes for your 20s. This is the age where you are building new friendships and the professional network that will carry with you over your whole life Spending those years rotting at home, scrolling on social media and only interacting with coworkers via Teams chats is the exact opposite of what you should be doing3d ago40K627367791352.22%
Favorite finance books for learning public markets Drop any recommendations in the comments. Always love to find good reads https://t.co/p1YzssfjErfrozen18d ago39K1.1K943039795.58%
Past a certain point, a company misreporting their revenue by $20B can be a very bad thing. Trust me https://t.co/DSr9E6Ub2wfrozen14d ago39K1.8K72153675.02%
Piper Sandler analysts realizing that they can’t themselves “elite boutique” bankers anymore https://t.co/OXnfcp8G6dfrozen8d ago39K3251051290.95%
People are so bearish on AI that they are forgetting > Very small portion of the American population, and even smaller portion of the global population, currently pay for AI today > Frontier models are still underpricing their tokens for leading use cases > Most small business owners in America still have no idea that Cowork exists > The average person above the age of 35 still only view AI as a chatbot. They have no idea about the agentic capabilities being built into the tools and platforms > Most AI startups today are still <3 years old. These companies are just getting started and the talent is just starting to pour in > Frontier models will only get better from here, and there will absolutely be buyers at the edge (hedge funds, institutional research, drug discovery use cases) who will continue to pay for the most expensive models available > Open source has not yet taken off at scale. This will bring down cost of commoditized tokens and provide a massive margin uplift for the average business > Even some of the smartest people in the world are just starting to play with the tools, and slowly figuring out just how much can be done with it. The Cambrian explosion of new use cases has still not happened > Even if the frontier models don’t improve at all from here, just the slow distillation across all of society means there is decades of runway left for the adoption of this technology Can stock prices fluctuate in the short term? Sure. But, investing and company building should only be done with the long term in mind. We are still in the first innings of a very long marathon Remember that it is easy for pessimists to sound smart in the short term. Over the long term, it is the optimists who capture all the returns2d ago38K491346031902.04%
Scrolling X in between your work is the modern era version of a smoke breakfrozen14d ago37K1.4K80196324.06%
Realizing that low interest rates and USAID were the reason why the left was winning in Latin America https://t.co/BMBo1oIpfTfrozen18d ago37K69325102632.15%
The entire world of finance runs on arbitraging the cost of capital between various counterparties who have mandates beyond just generating the highest returns. For example, an LP in a fund might have an 8% minimum hurdle rate, above which they are willing to pay a 20% carry to the GP of the fund. That 8% is the minimum amount that an LP (often an insurance company or endowment fund) needs in order to support their own function and pay out liabilities to their own stakeholders So by gathering up capital from people who need a minimum 8% return, the GP is able to arbitrage any returns above that level and keep a cut of it for themselves. The same exact thing goes for banks that provide debt and backleverage to private credit funds. At a 20% loan-to-value, the bank is willing to provide loans at SOFR + 250, while the private credit fund might own a book with an average spread of SOFR + 500 For the bank, which has a cost of capital at the SOFR rate, earnings a 250 bps spread is enough to justify making a loan that sits on the balance sheet. The credit fund then arbitrages this by making loans to a diversified set of borrowers at a higher spread and keeps the difference, essentially juicing up the IRR without putting the fund's own capital to work The market is a poker table where every player has different incentives and goals in mind. You are playing against others who have no intention of necessarily maximizing IRR and finding the highest-yielding opportunities Many are constrained by regulatory burdens put on them (banks, for example). Others simply want to make enough for their stakeholders so they can keep their business running That is where the arbitrage comes in, if you know how to find and exploit these opportunitiesfrozen20d ago36K505201823392.44%
Jensen Huang was asked if he would rather relive his 20s or be 20 years old today. Without hesitation, he said he would rather not be in his 20s today. His reasoning? The new generation is far too cynical because they are exposed to too much early https://t.co/cYLbvYhDAc https://t.co/a2Bor00Z1Qfrozen9d ago36K38336822301.83%
Jobs are like women. It is much easier to get a new one when you already have one The sooner you realize this, the betterfrozen28d ago36K89129901202.92%
People overestimate how much diligence pod shops do before taking positions in a name Investment thesis is often very short term driven and reliant on whether the company beats next quarter earnings This doesn’t actually require you to learn the long term fundamentals of the business. Simply taking a view on whether the company beats consensus or not PMs certainly have a list of favorite names that they tend to take big bets on, which analysts maintain very detailed forecast models for Some portion of the book always remains pretty directional and is hinged on short term catalystsfrozen6d ago36K30891121201.26%
How she looks after finding out that you work at Goldman Sachs in Dallas https://t.co/SCjLpwCbadfrozen22d ago35K6318122331.96%
Crazy to think it has almost been 2 years since Satya Nadella went on CNBC and said he was good for his $80 billion https://t.co/cJGxqyowqX https://t.co/Kl3zopXSndfrozen8d ago35K2221220720.89%
The most predictive traits for success are > Perseverance > Work ethic > Sense of urgency > Ability to think from first principles If you develop these when you are young, you will end up fine no matter what career path you go down. Combine these with a passion for something niche that only few people can do, you will build incredible amounts of wealthfrozen17d ago34K1.1K701315114.95%
The simple truth is that you either need to own assets or you will be left behind forever As a young person, your three choices are 1. Convert leftover wages after expenses into equity through the stock market 2. Start your own business or find a way to be an early employee that is compensated through equity 3. Have rich parents Pick wiselyfrozen6d ago34K742452362193.01%
If you are in your 20s slaving away at a job or career path that you have very little passion for, you should consider switching as soon as possible. The time to make the jump is when you have few responsibilities and even fewer people who depend on you. It only gets harder as you get older. Career pivots are not easy once you are a decade or two into your role. This is advice that a lot of people wish they had heard sooner.26d ago34K675332051842.67%
Ken Griffin calling AI a bubble so he can liquidate Leopold for a second time https://t.co/OPUvA0VPli1d ago34K74941132402.47%
The world becomes a lot easier to navigate once you realize that intelligence is in incredibly high supply, but courage always runs at a shortage This has always been true for many centuries, but now even more in the age of AI. Everyone will have access to super intelligence at the tip of their fingers But very few will actually use it to generate wealth and build unique things. The simple reason is because not enough people have the courage to do the work in order to get there Being smart is incredibly overrated. Willing to take risk is incredibly underratedfrozen14d ago34K1.1K10718113534.55%
Investors finding the last dollars in their savings account to buy Anthropic at a $2T IPO valuation after the company reported a $42B net loss last year https://t.co/tIp7KqdmPYfrozen24d ago34K58423162401.97%
For all the hype around vibe coding this year, I personally don't know a single person or business that actually cancelled a software subscription to pivot towards an internally built vibe coded tool Vibe coding seems to be one of those things that look great on paper but falls apart when you actually try to build and implement it in the real world Sure, maybe some engineers are using agents to speed up the rate at which they write and review code. But a 100% vibe-coded tool is simply not that useful or valuablefrozen11d ago34K4001514815471.85%
Attention Young AMericans I am surrounded by boomers in my life that are smart, capable, hard working and cute. Nobody is listening to them. Not sure what the deal is, but I don’t get it. Step 1: Skip the guac and iced coffees in the morning Step 2: Send 1000 applications and cold emails asking for a job Step 3: Sit through 5 rounds of interviews for an entry-level job Step 4: Accept the job even if you are forced to come into the office despite your boss working remotely everyday Step 5: Pay for food and other basic necessities, the prices of which outpace your salary raise every single year Step 6: Save what you can after paying interest on your student loans. The college education you received has absolutely nothing to do with your actual role Step 7: Ask the bank for a 6.75% mortgage, the rate for which has nearly tripled over the course of the last five years Step 8: Offer the seller above their asking price if you want any shot of actually landing the home that you want Step 9: IMPORTANT - remember that you are competing with institutional asset managers and people with 10x your net worth for any home you bid on. They are also likely to pay all cash, which sellers prefer Step 10: I highly recommend you lower your expectations and delay life goals for finding a partner or building a family. That is something the older generations did in their early and mid 20s. You must wait for your turn in your 30s if you are lucky Step 11: Be a gentleman about it. Even if politicians structurally prevent home prices from coming down through regulatory red tape or leave the burden of trillions in national debt on your shoulder, understand there is nothing you can do. Provided you follow most of this guideline, you are highly likely to get yourself an opportunity for the American dreamfrozen11d ago34K2639143981.15%
The most important thing school doesn’t prepare you for is what happens to your friends when you enter adulthood School creates a standardized path where you are surrounded by people your own age. By the time you enter late 20s and early 30s, your friend group starts to change drastically Some end up obsessed with their careers. Others are spending their time traveling. Some are fitness junkies. List goes on Start to run out of things to talk about with folks you used to spend hours bantering with. Kind of surrealfrozen19d ago34K48621511161.87%
Update excel files with numbers for 3 years Review excel files and give edits for 4 years Provide directions on how to build the excel file so it can be “client ready” for 4 years Sign off on the excel file with “thx” for 15 years There has to be more to life than thisfrozen25d ago34K3896123601.40%
The advice a lot more men need to hear in their 20s If you don’t find a way to be a prisoner to your discipline early in your life, you will eventually become a prisoner to your pleasures Either path is a struggle Working hard is a struggle today, but not being financially independent is just as much of a burden in your 30s and 40s Consistently going to the gym and working out is a struggle today, but having a body that starts crumbling in your 30s and 40s is just as bad The difference with the first is that you are choosing and making the decision of what you will allow to control your life And it is almost always better to give up gratification today for satisfaction in the future Pick wiselyfrozen10d ago33K924641623554.09%
Working in an investing seat for long enough will make you realize that whenever someone starts throwing jargon and complicated answers at you, they are lying to you. Even the most technical industries and products have value propositions that are incredibly simple to understand and communicate. If someone cannot answer your questions on a business in a very simple fashion that would make sense to a reasonably intelligent teenager, it is probably because a good answer does not existfrozen26d ago33K655361551492.61%
The cash conversion cycle is one of the most underrated metrics that analysts often don't spend enough time on Here is a primer on how it is calculated and why it is important for investment evaluation https://t.co/xbwa2fKvS7frozen27d ago33K533341236493.77%
For the past year or so, software engineers and coders have been warning us about the perils of AI, citing how it is doing most of their day to day jobs Think the exact same thing is now coming to finance Most young analysts and associates I speak with are telling me that Claude in Excel and Powerpoint is now doing at least 40-50% of the grunt work that they used to do previously Ironically, this has actually not made work life balance any better for juniors. VPs and MDs themselves are now becoming aware of the capabilities, and chasing after new deals faster than ever before Process timelines for deals have sped up materially, and bankers are now giving tighter timelines for investors to respond, with the assumption that investors are also using AI to speed up diligence, which has absolutely shown to be the case The outcome seems to be a more efficient deal environment with more deals completed overall, rather than headcount reduction today Most hiring managers, however, largely agree that new analyst class sizes should shrink moving forward. A class of 15 analysts equipped with Claude can now do the same amount of work that you would have required 18 analysts for previously Very interesting times to live infrozen15d ago33K34111355881.47%
Private equity firms adding value to their portfolio companies https://t.co/eX6wGHtZxb3d ago33K4162595751.63%
Investment banking analysts watching Claude build a more accurate LBO model in half the time and praying that their VP never finds out https://t.co/b9hnGegGjjfrozen15d ago33K51022111501.82%
People will have bad reactions to this, but I have always been a believer in the idea that if exams are in contradiction to where the world is headed, the issue lies in what you are examining for, not the technology itselffrozen27d ago33K113772320.49%
Genuinely think that social media has cooked people’s perception on life At the age of 25, it is perfectly normal to not have life figured out. You are typically just a few years into your career, and have plenty of time to find the right person to settle down with Social media will have you believe that you are supposed to already be worth millions and find your dream partner by your mid 20s. This is absolutely not the case The people who are in that position are outliers. Look at any statistic that exists on where young people are today, and you realize that the average person is still just figuring it out at 25 Don’t let the outliers guide your decision and life. The more anxiety you feel from it, the more you will fall behind4d ago32K696511712493.17%
A lot of people make fun at bankers for the way they calculate Adjusted EBITDA, but I have truly never seen anything worse than the way consultants calculate TAM Literally the most laughable analysis filled with assumptions that make no sense. Truly wonder how they come up with it21h ago32K59825173672.25%
Watching unemployment rise while the Fed is hiking interest rates, treasury yields are above 5%, and the stock market is a few percentage points within its all time high https://t.co/1gHmo2owUDfrozen20d ago31K3922070351.46%
Ironically, this is a good reason why private equity firms like adding debt to their portfolio companies Beyond just enhancing equity returns, a constant stream of interest payments tends to keep executives much more operationally disciplined in terms of their spend While short term underperformance might be fine for a debt free business, companies with a massive debt load are forced to focus on cost cutting and margins so they can meet their quarterly interest payments This obviously has second and third order effects, and can lead to underinvestment for the long run in some cases But in majority of cases, CEOs and CFOs tend to execute much better with a little bit of debt on the balance sheetfrozen9d ago30K362191611071.70%
Investment banking analysts watching Trump wear Jos A Bank suits https://t.co/yicopez7UUfrozen15d ago29K5011440281.90%
The most critical skills to be a good buyside analyst 1. Understanding your PM or IC's biases and how to play off against that to get your names into the book 2. Identifying the 3-5 key diligence items that actually matter to the investment thesis and drilling down on those 3. Not getting analysis paralysis with every business or situation you look at. Can only lead to burnout and will spread you far too thin 4. Articulating your investment thesis clearly in a few sentences and bullet points. If you can't do that, you don't have a real investment thesis. If you need 40 pages of pretty-looking slides to convey your investment thesis, you don't have a real investment thesis 5. Highlighting the key risks clearly and being eyes wide open when stepping into a new investment 6. Following all the news flow around your portfolio companies and respective competitors. This is an extremely under-appreciated skill. Sometimes your next best idea is the name that is already in the book. No excuse to not follow news flow anymore, especially with AI 7. Relationship building. Knowing what other firms and analysts in your sector are following is key to finding good ideas. In private markets, knowing the right people can make or break your ability to get into the good deals. Simply no alternative to good networking skillsfrozen27d ago29K44227834043.09%
The biggest mistake a lot of young people make is being overly motivated by money when deciding on a career path There is absolutely nothing wrong with chasing financial stability and building a strong foundation for yourself But as you go down the path, you come to realize that money is a very bad motivator after you hit a certain level of wealth or comfort in your life If the motivation is not intrinsic, it is only a matter of time before you will burn yourself out and punch out completelyfrozen26d ago28K439261931112.10%
Absolute banger ARR might be the most misconstrued reported metric that exists It is not defined under GAAP, so auditors will allow CFOs to define ARR however they want Many companies will take one time sales and show it under ARR, fully knowing that none of the revenue is actually recurring Investors also commonly miss the difference between recurring and re-occurring revenue, the latter of which lacks contractual obligation for payment from the customerfrozen15d ago28K34821102701.59%
High net worth individuals are increasingly lending to private equity and private credit firms against the marks of their portfolio companies According to UBS, 20% of family office assets are now being invested in NAV loans What could go wrong? https://t.co/jtm3xm4JNZfrozen24d ago28K2021584621.03%
The one thing about negotiations is that it is always good to leave something for the other person on the table. If you are trying to squeeze out every last dollar, you should come to realize that the other person is likely not going to continue doing business with you Instead, what you want is repeated transactions over long periods of time with the same people. Trust removes friction unlike anything else, and life only becomes easier when you exclusively work and spend time with people you trust.frozen19d ago28K33025461021.66%
Charlie Munger: “The reason we get into such idiocy in investment management is best illustrated by a story that I tell about the guy who sold fish tackle. I asked him ‘My god, they are purple and green. Do fish really take these lures?’ And he said ‘Mister, I don’t sell to fish’”4d ago28K38432901932.20%
“Yeah tell me more about how you generated differentiated alpha for your LPs” https://t.co/ciVCg7thJzfrozen17d ago27K360961501.55%
Has any other generation won the ovarian lottery quite like boomers Grow up post WWII during an Industrial Boom with government support to attend college and find jobs immediately after You had 40 years of declining interest rates that provided tailwinds to asset prices, including housing and stocks throughout your prime working years The government stepped in to save the economy, provide social services and cover healthcare costs whenever something went wrong They filled the political class with people of their generation, and these same folks were willing to sacrifice the future generations for short term prosperity We took on trillions of dollars in debt just to support welfare for these boomers as they are about to retire. And around this same time, they pulled the rug on everyone else. Interest rates are now rising, which will let them stash away their assets into safe 5% yielding government bonds after 40 years of appreciation Housing, thanks to regulation, has become unaffordable to the point where the next generation are reliant on their parents’ generosity just to have social mobility in the world The damage done can never be undone. Truly incrediblefrozen20d ago27K404214121092.11%
The treasury yield currently sitting above 5.2% while the S&amp;P 500 is within a few points of its all time highs Clearly one market is wrong. The question is which onefrozen24d ago27K1893162180.83%
This 60 minute lesson from Jensen Huang in 2011 at Stanford University will teach you more than an MBA https://t.co/ZXexjiWpvEfrozen8d ago27K36635305553.52%
The circularity of AI > CoreWeave buys GPUs from NVIDIA > NVIDIA finances the purchase with an equity investment > NVIDIA rents compute from CoreWeave to build open source models and backstops all unused compute through 2032 > Open source models increases demand for CoreWeave compute > Increased demand and backstop leads to more lenders and investors providing capital to CoreWeave > CoreWeave uses the capital to purchase more NVIDIA GPUsfrozen9d ago27K221181141011.34%
A lesson that you should learn as young as possible The will to prepare is much more important than the will to succeed. Everyone wants to chase success. Very few people are willing to chase and embrace the preparation required for that success. As you get older, you realize that the percentage of people who are actually willing to do the work to achieve their ambitions is very small Just by putting in the hours, you will come out ahead of 90% of people. Combine that with some good decisions along the way, and you will end up with success in whatever field you pursuefrozen11d ago26K809441113354.55%
Have long said that AI applications that can integrate company specific context and knowledge will ultimately win in the space For an investment bank, that is the firm’s specific deal pipeline, format, client list and experience from prior transactions General purpose AI can be great, but slowly loses usefulness over time if you can’t retain the company layer data into the decision making processfrozen21d ago26K73341450.48%
The finance recruiting pipeline feels frozen at the junior level right now > lot of firms trying to figure out what headcount they will even need in a few years with AI > poor return of capital to LPs holding up carry for senior folks, who are delaying retirement or leaving the industry > people at the mid level waiting for promotions until they switch jobs Ironically, banking pay is now better than buyside at many shops but you are trading much longer hours and more mundane work in bankingfrozen6d ago26K273591641.36%
Meta investors who have been holding since beginning of the year looking at the App Store (Muse still holding #1) https://t.co/FxBB4Kwh8ufrozen29d ago26K262310101.07%
The right way to approach careers is to treat it more like a marathon, rather than a sprint If you are young and taking shortcuts to look good in the short term, you are leaving enormous long term potential on the table Don’t burn bridges with your coworkers and managers just because something feels not worth it today Don’t shy away from the difficult projects because you will certainly end up looking back and valuing the experience This is the one piece of advice that I wish a lot more young graduates understoodfrozen1mo ago26K48730611272.53%
Still absolutely crazy to me that the future of the world lies in the hands of these two https://t.co/7gsfvsMRd0frozen12d ago26K2921662421.39%
CFOs going through the books and realizing that the company AI agent booked a $30K timeshare instead of the $500 Airbnb https://t.co/HceZMWVyE4frozen24d ago25K229530110.97%
Past a certain age, a man still trying to buy small businesses with 80% SBA loans can be a very bad thing https://t.co/fHumyP5RSlfrozen21d ago25K33611101211.49%
Reminder that Anthropic was founded just five years ago and their quarterly revenues are now above Intel, Uber, Coca-Cola, and Netflix https://t.co/j4223fxDPV4d ago25K51830246632.53%
This is Wall Street, Mr. Burry. If you are going to pay us 2% management fees and 20% carried interest on positions that we get to mark ourselves, we will gladly take it https://t.co/NsCNsQmUNWfrozen12d ago25K6611341352.84%
Kind of incredible watch the entirety of Latin America shift towards right wing candidates It is almost like the 2010s era was a blip in time where the far left gained ground. Ironically, this coincided with historically low interest rates Probably a lesson in therefrozen18d ago25K45910102202.01%
Fast food restaurant stocks used to be investor darlings with stable earnings and steady cash flows. That narrative has now changed From 2010 to 2021, QSR stock returns averaged +18%, compared to +13% for the S&P 500 From 2022 to 2026, these same stocks have returned -4.5%, compared to +11% for the S&P 500frozen11d ago25K1519167470.92%
We will literally invent God before Microsoft ever fixes Outlook search or improves the UX of Microsoft teams Let that sink infrozen11d ago25K53723135162.41%
How the liberal girl from Brooklyn looks at me when I tell her I work in private equity https://t.co/6ftk4hQGZffrozen1mo ago25K5511941332.48%
Pretty brilliant idea when you think about it. Companies that do repetitive tasks can have a dedicated model that consumes tokens more efficiently just for that one workflow If you work at an investment bank that builds hundreds of the same LBO models every single month, having a dedicated agent that focuses on just your excels can help increase efficiency with lower token costs You still keep the frontier models for complex tasks that require deeper thinking. But the value of dedicated models for repetitive tasks is unmatched for a lot of white collar jobsfrozen9d ago24K23413902251.98%
Have always hated the concept of considering treasuries to be “risk free” People take it far too literally, when the realistic lens is to view it as opportunity cost Treasuries are only risk free in the sense that you are guaranteed to receive your principal back However, it doesn’t account for the fact that you are taking risk through: 1. Inflation eating away at your earnings power during that time period. There have been periods of time when real rates (rate minus CPI) are negative 2. Opportunity cost of not investing in higher yielding stocks or bonds, assuming you are being compensated correctly for the risk you are taking. The younger you are, the more opportunity cost you have If something yields below the treasury rate, it is simply more worthwhile for you to invest that money in treasuries instead But ultimately, the math should be based on your cost of capital, rather than the risk free rate itself A company with 8% cost of capital should only reinvest its cash flows into investments and expansions that expect to generate higher rates of returns above 8% Simply referring to treasuries as risk free assets doesn’t account for the entire picture, and is a pretty narrow, but somewhat helpful, way to view the worldfrozen17d ago24K127681460.78%
“Just show up to her doorstep with flowers” is the boomer dating advice equivalent of “just start in the mailroom with a firm handshake and you will end up as an investment banker”frozen11d ago24K58821191332.76%
CEOs giving the M&amp;A mandate to whichever investment bank shows the highest TEV multiple in their pitch deck https://t.co/J0I7PB4HiTfrozen12d ago24K8851963494.01%
A lot of people will mistakenly think this headline reveals something about the usefulness of AI, when in reality it reveals a lot more about the usefulness of consultantsfrozen7d ago24K2771191451.43%
Piper Sandler is reportedly looking to buy PWP, in what would create a consolidated advisory boutique investment bank Will be really interesting to see what headcount changes they make if the deal goes through Would be the first major investment bank M&A deal in an AI led world. Will be very telling how they think about analyst class sizes and promotion pipelinefrozen23d ago23K198651281.02%
Corporate jobs are absolutely cooked. Only a matter of time before the decision makers realize this https://t.co/QLnVo8aLD1frozen7d ago23K51819224492.66%
“You came up with how many EBITDA adjustments today?” https://t.co/VnBS6L0Go3frozen13d ago22K6071862332.98%
Society at large is not ready for many of the second and third order consequences of AI https://t.co/XtSNynNfdv2d ago22K22612135301.28%
Wharton MBAs showing up to visit the midwest HVAC business they overpaid for https://t.co/sDvU2X3owpfrozen12d ago22K3641390261.85%
When you ask your unemployed friend why he doesn't just try to get a job https://t.co/NvV8i2WgmXfrozen18d ago22K2351430841.52%
Private equity sponsors answering lender diligence questions on EBITDA addbacks https://t.co/M0bsRqRdh2frozen12d ago22K2801460501.59%
Another entire category automated https://t.co/NEQQimEzMafrozen29d ago22K58011130.33%
Elon Musk is literally telling you that value of compute per watt will increase over time, and you are still bearish the AI trade? https://t.co/ofcGBBiCcS2d ago22K35512206462.04%
Humans saw this and still invented the discounted cash flow model https://t.co/D8Rvz5pf2Hfrozen28d ago21K7663675343.98%
Lot of people don’t like hearing this but having extremely low expectations out of life is probably the path to be the happiest version of yourself This also explains why a lot of hyper ambitious and successful people end up unhappy despite having millions in their bank account It is hard to be happy when you believe that life didn’t give you everything that you deserved to achieve. The remedy is to just believe that you never deserved much in the first place Easier said than done, obviously3d ago21K437271841282.89%
Simply wanting it more than everyone else is absolutely a competitive moat. The sooner you realize this, the better4d ago21K830381111464.87%
The average CEO or CFO at a small business has absolutely no willingness to vibe code their own software They would much rather click a button that functions all the time, and be able to call a customer support rep when that thing doesn’t work properly Running a business within itself is already hard enough for most companies. The average small business CEO is juggling across 5 different custom problems of their own To think that they would spend time building an entire tool, which some SaaS companies dedicate their entire workforce to, is just ignorant of how real life works Maybe some startups and some massive enterprises with the resources to do it will build some of their own platforms But the enormous middle, which is filled with SMBs and family businesses, can’t do it or won’t have the willingness to do it And there is some incredible opportunity for a lot of folks that live in this middlefrozen10d ago21K412234921052.82%
Probably one of the craziest charts that highlights just how much capital is going behind the AI infrastructure buildout The greatest companies ever built are obliterating every last dollar in free cash flow to win this race The cost of falling behind is simply too high. We have never seen this level of spend in such a concentrated sector and short period of time in history23h ago21K3062393501.88%
The person who left the recording device: https://t.co/mkQt6ce5bIfrozen9d ago20K3511442181.90%
This is one of those ideas that you look at and wonder why you didn’t come up with first The business banking and LLC formation absolutely sucks today. Companies move far too slowly and KYC alone takes forever at many banks. Small businesses struggle with enough already. No reason why just setting up the organizational structure and payment systems should be so complicatedfrozen6d ago20K145550991.25%
Investment banking analysts after their Hinge date turns them down https://t.co/WglCPUiuwQfrozen16d ago20K6791452313.61%
The real tragedy of life is making it to the end without actually ever realizing your full potential. Applies to everything, including career, fitness, and relationships. Wasted potential will haunt you for many years to come.frozen25d ago20K566501811203.76%
“So your fund blew up a second time because you didn’t learn anything after the first?” https://t.co/KmI05KMdsWfrozen7d ago20K505860372.77%
Piper Sandler analysts realizing they can say they work at an “elite boutique” investment bank now https://t.co/sLXVCecMmPfrozen23d ago20K406320252.18%
The world would be better off today if Instagram didn’t exist https://t.co/BoYuRQ5S1Yfrozen15d ago20K75427122134.05%
Regardless of who wins the midterms, the real thing to watch will be how things shape up going into 2028 All the tech CEOs who swung towards the right over the last few years might suddenly shift course, in fears of regulation from the left Will be a good test to see who had real conviction in what they said, and who was simply saying it to protect their own businessfrozen19d ago20K121640110.72%
Honestly feel bad for the doomers who can’t help but believe that the end of the world is coming soon Humanity is far more resilient than one might think. Humans are far more creative and persistent than you can imagine Even if AI were to ruin every single job that exists today, we will find ways to fill our time and find purpose in work that is very different than anything that exists today I have never met a single highly successful person who became and stayed wealthy by being a permanent doomer Just carry on carrying on with your life and leave the doomerism behind for folks who love to complainfrozen21d ago20K1361270300.94%
Iran looking at 5.1% US treasury yields while their entire country is suffering from elevated inflation and disruption from the Strait https://t.co/NWPTu7M9ZJfrozen28d ago20K15163020.82%
When you really peel all the layers back, the balance sheet of five or six companies is essentially holding up the entire economy right now Both in the form of direct capex investments, as well as hundreds of billions in backstops provided to JVs and neoclouds through SPVs A crack in the balance sheet of any of these companies, and the entire complex comes crashing down. That is the focal risk point for the entire AI bull thesisfrozen11d ago19K31518141662.14%
I asked Opus 5.5 to create a video on the history of NVIDIA as a company The outcome was much better than what I expected https://t.co/4SxtPEQF2xfrozen25d ago19K60131360.52%
Bending Spoons CEO every time he sees a SaaS business announce mass layoffs https://t.co/sRspch2dMWfrozen10d ago19K2361160301.47%
Private equity firms after marking up their own portfolio companies to show a massive unrealized IRR to their LPs https://t.co/a4wP3FzZVSfrozen19d ago19K2431731891.84%
The one quality I keep seeing in extremely successful people is that their need to be right far outweighs their need to be liked Lesson in there somewhere2d ago19K38914114792.63%
The older you grow, the more you realize that there is no right answer to life Every single person has their own path for what makes them happy. For some, this is chasing down career success even if it means sacrificing personal life. For others, it is taking a step back to spend more time with friends and family. Even within these two buckets, many people pursue it in their own way, and on their own timeline This is scary at first as you become an adult. Since childhood, you are laid out a path in school and know exactly what you must do to be considered “successful” The lines tend to only get blurrier as you age more and realize that everyone reaches their destination in completely separate ways Which ultimately leads to the conclusion that the destination was never part of the goal. It was always the journey The sooner you recognize that, the happier you will befrozen27d ago19K36923521052.68%
A large part of the entire AI spend in the economy is simply a race to the bottom on who can protect their business better than others Just this week, we heard about the Blue Cross Blue Shield news where hospitals are reportedly using AI to bill higher charges to health insurance companies To counter it, the health insurance companies are now implementing AI to prevent the hospitals from being able to bill higher charges Both sides are paying for the tokens. The economic value being created is close to zero. It is simply being used to play defense on the existing revenue and margins, rather than play offense to increase those metrics or KPIs Similarly, there are lawyers on both side of a case who are both using AI to go through documents and present their case better Bankers on both side of an M&A deal are using AI to negotiate a better deal for their own client. Same thing happening with consultants, accountants and many other industries across the spectrum The story remains the same. New economic value being created is zero. The only people getting rich are the token providers, who themselves are in a price war with open source alternatives The entire complex is essentially headed towards a race to the bottom. Very interesting times to live infrozen24d ago19K34531171882.58%
Primer on Drop Down Financing Transactions https://t.co/ZdaV1hKCngfrozen25d ago19K1774601761.95%
The more I play around with AI, the more I am convinced that the next few years will be a battle between outsourcing judgement to platforms vs. building your own conviction and understanding around a decision Just having AI make decisions for you will become increasingly easy. Given human nature to calibrate around the laziest option, this is where the majority of folks will end up. Probably a good thing for small tasks, like finding the cheapest shirt to buy or looking for a product that you need. These will be the good use cases where outsourcing judgement to AI will boost productivity. But there will emerge a wide array of very bad use cases, where people will become reliant on these tools to do their job, deal with emotional stress, and navigate their intimate relationships The ones who are able to avoid the urge to fall into the second category will come out as winnersfrozen19d ago19K31527173932.46%
AI waking up in 2060 with the memory that I asked it to count from 0 to 100 back in 2026 https://t.co/3dRR6QMLabfrozen21d ago18K8440080.52%
If you ever feel behind, just remember that there is a large cohort of the population out there who refuse to use AI tools to this day Some of them are stuck in the misinformation around environmental harm. Others are virtue signaling about their concern about the water shortage Some are taking a stand simply out of principle with the belief that this technology might replace all of humanity some day What none of these folks realize is that no matter what they do or so, we are never moving backwards in time The genie is already out of the bottle. No going back. You either adapt or die. This technology will slowly proliferate through society one way or another The question is simply this: do you want to arm yourself with the tools and capabilities to get ahead or be permanently stuck in the past forever? If you are spending even 30 minutes a day playing with a new AI tool or using Claude to do your job, you are ahead of the majority of the population That is how early we arefrozen27d ago18K28714111642.05%
Once you start to believe that you will get everything out of life exactly as you deserve it, things become a lot easier Too many people suffer from the resentment of not getting what they think they deserve. As you get older, this resentment kills your motivation and accountability You start to become a narrow minded person who thinks the world is unfair. Negativity sits at the core of your world view I have many friends who thought they would multi millionaires by the time they were 30, only to realize that they are still miles away from that goal Many folks I know attempted to start companies thinking they could be the next Zuckerberg. Some of their businesses fashionably failed, and they never fully recovered from ego hit These people feel like they deserved a lot more, but never got to achieve it. Meanwhile, the folks who took accountability for their failures and just kept moving on anyway are doing much better. Many of them didn’t have grandiose goals to begin with, or just realized that they were looking for an ordinary outcome. For some reason, they ended up much happier There is certain peace in knowing that you cannot expect extraordinary outcomes while putting in ordinary efforts2d ago18K349211021573.00%
Dario: let’s pace the frontier Also Dario: here is Claude making another ground breaking scientific discovery to push the frontier of biology forwardfrozen29d ago18K14154070.89%
European AI startups watching NVIDIA invest $28 into their companies https://t.co/xTLxh8IB1Hfrozen9d ago18K5421280253.35%
There is unlimited supply of people with big ideas but extremely limited supply of people with courage to take on those ideas The older you grow, the more you realize that courage and willingness to fail for long periods of time matter much more than intellectfrozen29d ago17K655571621745.19%
Private credit associates right now https://t.co/Qp3j8QFwsdfrozen10d ago17K453830302.85%
The investment business is incredibly tough because there is no room to hide The returns are what they are. If you are underperforming the market, there is no excuse you can give. While people try to decorate IRR in many ways, the DPI and money returned to LPs cannot lie And even if you think that long term returns will be fine, any short term turbulence is met with redemption requests and questions investors, which just adds on to the stress The toughest pill to swallow is that you can be right 55% of the time and end up one of the best investors in the world But you will still be held at court to answer questions for the other 45% you missedfrozen6d ago17K21113101421.60%
Charlie Munger on why new innovation doesn’t always lead to more profitability in an industry Explains the bear case for frontier labs, including Anthropic and OpenAI, perfectly. Just because AI usage will increase doesn’t actually mean that the profits will accrue to these companies Intense competition and capital spending essentially moves the ROI scale to zero if prices are declining fast enough With open source models, that is exactly what is happening with tokens today. Intelligence is getting commoditized faster than ever before Ironically, for rest of corporate America, this is their bull case You are letting a few hyperscaler companies with trillion dollar market caps do all of the spending. Then, once they engage in a price war, you get to reap the benefits in the form of cheap intelligence “There are all kinds of wonderful new inventions that give you nothing as owners except the opportunity to spend a lot more money in a business that is still going to be lousy. The money won’t come to you. All of the advantages from great improvements will flow through to the customer”frozen5d ago17K310451521873.24%
Reminder to check in on your South Korean friends https://t.co/eWDpV2SQdafrozen8d ago17K5232752203.41%
It is incredible just how behind Europe has fallen behind when it comes to implementation and distillation of AI Not a single frontier model or leading open source model is based out of Europe today The VC funding environment is not great, and there is simply no motivation amongst the younger generation to try and build the next big thing They have come to terms with the fact that their entire technology ecosystem will forever be reliant on America in the west and China in the east It is incredible how over regulation has killed an entire continent’s ambitionsfrozen11d ago17K24916223291.89%
One of those books you can never read enough times On my fourth read, and still find incredible wisdom and nuggets on life that are worth carrying on from here Incredible legacy to leave behind https://t.co/mQtB7RZohpfrozen11d ago17K591331131524.69%
&gt; Generate $16 billion of revenue for the quarter &gt; Still IPO with a trillion dollar valuation https://t.co/kPDyRm2resfrozen7d ago17K398811062.53%
Jensen Huang says the superpower that makes America produce better intellectual property than the rest of the world is because we attract the best people from other countries to come here https://t.co/8a2WLCEMjGfrozen7d ago17K2361292261.72%
Hedge funds when the cancer PhD candidate drops their research to make commodity markets more efficient https://t.co/Kd4hoTavLU4d ago17K448620332.95%
Dating apps are the perfect example of abundance led unhappiness Pretty convinced that humans are the happiest where they are in pursuit of a goal, whether that is idealistic (relationships) or materialistic (money, career) However, when you force abundance upon people, like dating apps do, it actually leads to a lot of unhappy outcomes Turns out that human brains are inherently not built to deal with abundance. It is not the normal state of our evolutionary minds So whenever an industry forces abundance upon society, it is likely to have some very negative external effects along the way Believe this is also why many are worried about impact of AI on society. This new technology allows intelligence to scale and become abundant like never before. Similar to dating apps, I suspect that the abundance of intelligence is actually likely to make humans far less intelligent in the long run We are already seeing this in schools and corporate jobs where people are becoming overly reliant on their AI tools. The next decade will be a battle between outsourcing your thinking to AI vs enhancing your thinking with AI. You must pick wisely.2d ago17K26718144882.36%
Investors finding the last few dollars in their checking account to buy the dip on Monday https://t.co/GSvHMYU2T5frozen4d ago16K3171531252.21%
The lesson from this Chapter 11 is that you should never put too much leverage on a railway business, something we first learned in the 1800sfrozen24d ago16K91720280.80%
Netflix is reportedly laying off 1000 employees, or 6% of its workforce Biggest layoff in the company history. Will be focused on product, technology, legal and HR teams This is coming after multiple price hikes through the last couple years, including addition of ad tier subscription model into their platform Per subscriber viewership has been down at Netflix, and competitors such as YouTube, Amazon Prime and Disney+ have been chipping away at their market sharefrozen8d ago16K1259103171.04%
Frontier model companies are not really like airlines at all 1. Airlines have massive fixed operating costs, beyond just capex. They have to pay airports for access, they have to pay their labor consistently regardless of how many flights they make, and there is a lot of costs that goes into maintaining your fleet. AI models, once capex spend is completed, have a mostly variable cost based on token usage. They can price their tokens to earn a margin that feels reasonable 2. Capex is an ongoing need for airlines, but frontier companies can slow down capex if needed. The models are already at a point where if no further progress was made from here on out, Anthropic and OpenAI would continue to grow revenue tthrough distillation alone. Simply not the case in airlines today 3. Airlines are extremely sensitive to commodity prices and weather. Same is not true for AI model companies, which run software platforms that have demand regardless of external factors in the world 4. Airlines are not a necessity. People can defer vacations if needed. The same is not true for AI. As a corporation or business, if all your competitors are adopting AI, you are forced to do the same. It is either adapt or die. Will only be more and more true as time goes on 5. Predictability of revenue is very high for frontier model companies due to the contractual nature of the business. Anthropic can make reasonable estimates for how fast ARR will grow next year based on how many enterprises they onboard this year. The same is not true in airlines. Airline companies have to make judgements and predict demand for every single flight, each and every day based on hundreds of factors that impact demand. The demand curve is different for each route or destination, and that itself also changes based on the season of the year. They would have trouble guessing next months’s revenue correctly, let alone next year. This is a massive disadvantage when it comes to capital planning and managing spend. This is why airlines go bankrupt so often. I doubt the same will be true for frontier modelsfrozen20d ago16K86580450.92%
Investment banking analysts after receiving a "thx" from their MD https://t.co/8LlzNkvJ3qfrozen11d ago16K4192151353.08%
Last thing you see before revealing material non public information to a girl who has no idea what M&amp;A meansfrozen15d ago16K9633040.68%
Ever since I was a child, I wanted to add 7 turns of leverage to industrial businesses with no competitive differentiation https://t.co/q9NNDLtR2afrozen11d ago16K5191370303.66%
Type of girl you meet right after you decide to lock in and create generational wealth in the stock market https://t.co/wTEdbyNYVafrozen26d ago15K2691051272.02%
As more capital flows towards the multi-manager pod shop hedge funds, markets become inherently more quarterly earnings driven rather than fundamental driven. Large sums of capital are simply taking directional bets on whether company X beats earnings next quarter or not. The emphasis on where earnings and cash flow will be in five years has gone down considerably and is almost out of the question at many shops. As a retail investor, that is the core advantage that you have. You can buy stocks where next quarter earnings might be poor, but business prospects look amazing a few years from today Temperament is, therefore, much more important than any quantitative analysis that you can do. Has always been the case, but more true today than ever beforefrozen10d ago15K2171082862.12%
Business owners realizing they can just hedge all their labor costs and external events using prediction markets https://t.co/bmCKYd63H3frozen21d ago15K87130140.69%
Elite boutique analysts explaining their job to a Hinge date https://t.co/GiS5pyFJJrfrozen5d ago15K246550321.90%
Investment banking analysts going to sleep after realizing that years of learning excel shortcuts is going to be an absolute waste in the age of AI https://t.co/fgK4Xto20Ofrozen13d ago15K49620123253.69%
Ironically, the real risk for most SaaS companies is not so much that every single platform will be automated by AI, but rather that AI is now forcing every CFO and finance team to reconsider their software and IT budgets to see where juice can be squeezed The companies that are simple systems of record with no integration or data ownership will be losers. The ones that can actually perform tasks and show ROI for the end user will be the winners The problem that you face as a SaaS CEO is that AI is much better at integrating into enterprises than a simple SaaS tool. That is exactly why they themselves are scrambling to include AI into their own platformsfrozen16d ago15K71860400.84%
*taps sign* https://t.co/OWNKHaQjX0frozen6d ago15K131450381.21%
Receiving 5% on your savings account vs paying 8% for your mortgage https://t.co/HMuJMMDGp8frozen15d ago15K261853131.99%
Just spoke with a Gen Z analyst who said his job responsibility is to always be “IRR maxxing for his LPs” https://t.co/f7cW2Vakkv9d ago14K42812100233.30%
During the SpaceX earnings call, Elon Musk guided to $35B to $40B of capex for the fourth quarter of 2026, putting it in line with Microsoft's capex spend in the most recent quarter https://t.co/SLO9IvLRoF2d ago14K23619165582.33%
Just sat at a bar in midtown where tables on both sides were talking about how they just got funded by YC Yeah, there is most likely a bubble in AI startupsfrozen21d ago14K2042102101.60%
The irony is that the only thing that can save us from the national debt and bond market problem is economic growth, most of which will come through AI But if AI grows far too rapidly, we end up in a situation where the disruption caused will end up doing more harm than good for majority of people There is an extremely fine line that the industry as a whole needs to figure out, and I suspect, we will end up on the wrong side of that line in one way or anotherfrozen20d ago14K1797143291.67%
The older generations don’t understand the modern dating market, in the same exact way they don’t understand why housing affordability is so bad today They supported the policies that led to the destruction of both, whether it’s regulatory red tape or fake gender equality norms in the name of virtue They essentially pulled the ladder behind them, then turned around and asked why no one else seems to be able to reach the same peak anymorefrozen11d ago14K194780251.69%
Investment bankers after figuring out that you can add back whatever expenses you want and call it Adjusted EBITDA https://t.co/6kGS87glW8frozen10d ago14K4912373253.98%
Leopold watching other hedge funds blow up on the AI selloff today https://t.co/tk1kqNgDVjfrozen8d ago14K5932243104.58%
Mega funds exceeding $1B in size raised 93% of all capital in 2026 Private equity is going through a classic big get bigger phase, whereby all of the management fees are accruing to the large players In the future, only two types of funds will be successful 1. large scale funds with brand names where LPs don’t have to take career risk to allocate capital 2. small scale funds that can truly drive operational value and pick spots where entry multiples are incredibly attractive Everyone in the middle will get squeezed, mostly because they don’t offer anything differentiated to allocatorsfrozen16d ago14K1198101541.40%
Me looking at my MD as he promises a deliverable to the client that will ruin the next 3 weekends https://t.co/XBg9KTtgxFfrozen14d ago14K3841231163.04%
“Yeah, we can add 6x leverage on this business” “Have you looked at the cash flows?” “No, have you?” “No” https://t.co/CVrrIRSJbJ3d ago14K417781253.36%
Meanwhile he just lost his entire life savings for the second time https://t.co/yCgIvpbY7n26d ago14K16922071.33%
NVIDIA is not just a GPU or semiconductor company Using its balance sheet, it has quietly crafted an entire ecosystem of customers and suppliers, many of whom are massive public companies on their own The hallmark example of this is CoreWeave, a neo cloud provider that has a backstop on unused capacity through 2032 from NVIDIA Jensen has provided CoreWeave with equity financing, preferential vendor agreements on new chip designs, and a customer relationship where NVIDIA rents back the compute capacity from CoreWeave Jensen has designed the entire AI ecosystem to be positively aligned with NVIDIA’s success If NVIDIA fails, the entire AI ecosystem fails. We have never seen another company be this important and core to an entire budding industry beforefrozen8d ago14K1371793461.57%
Treasury yields going higher is a reminder that the national debt is now above $40 trillion, and we are still running a $2T deficit annually Unless we change course, we are going to run into a brick wall very soon https://t.co/FiijhgSKZlfrozen29d ago13K23319176102.12%
God gives his hardest battles (sending “sounds good, will do” emails) to his strongest soldiers (investment banking analysts)frozen3d ago13K2611160142.20%
Boomers looking at their net worth 2x once again while the younger generation struggles to buy a first home https://t.co/W0EMbYfPMPfrozen14d ago13K34013151122.88%
Type of girl you meet right after getting caught for leaving a bugging device in your employer's office https://t.co/HYoZ079bZYfrozen9d ago13K214740201.87%
Not surprising at all with how good the new models are getting at executing on junior analyst and associate tasks The huge benefit that a company like Hebbia has over the foundation models is essentially no capex cost, and any reduction in token expenses flows straight to the margin bottom line Feels like we will slowly start to see the application layer businesses become winners in their own niche verticals1d ago13K83620340.95%
https://t.co/G900ApCUQCfrozen1mo ago13K4710000.37%
We are entering a decade of rising borrowing rates prompted by national debt level competing against deflation prompted by technological advancement. The only hope for America is that the second outpaces the firstfrozen19d ago13K163961251.59%
How it feels receiving a banker CIM with too many em dashes https://t.co/l2CwkhM2pw19h ago13K281411092.38%
Walking into work on a Monday morning after you crushed 8 beers the night before https://t.co/5HxOhaUIs7frozen25d ago13K22893091.95%
It is way easier to be the top 10% at something than you might think It is way harder to be the top 1% at something than you might think26d ago13K3682752373.45%
Chamath hits the nail on the head on why calling yourself an "AI lab" is simply a way to dodge accountability as OpenAI and Anthropic "We have organizations and corporations that try to fashion themselves as labs, but they are not labs. These are corporations. These are for-profit corporations that have absorbed hundreds of billions of dollars in debt and equity. They have thousands and thousands of shareholders. They have trillions of dollars in market cap"frozen26d ago13K831690170.99%
Paid users for dating apps peaked in 2023 and has been a downtrend since then Hinge is the only standout of the big three players, which has actually seen subscriber count move up. Tinder and Bumble are seeing declining paid users over time The vast majority of paid users today are still men These apps are now scrambling for new ways to monetize the platform, including advertisements, new paid tiers, and one off promotions to send specialized texts or add features to showcase your profilefrozen9d ago13K1104122171.15%
One of the most telling traits of a founder is when you are able to get punched in the face and bounce right back Micro1 went from losing 60% of their revenue overnight and almost filing for bankruptcy, to now crossing $1B in ARR Incredible story on a very important company worth following alongfrozen10d ago13K104350391.20%
Many such cases https://t.co/uBNwE7BFxWfrozen3d ago12K251350192.23%
Have come to realize that you need a certain level of overconfidence to be a great investor You are competing against people with an army of Ivy league graduates working around the clock to find inefficiencies in security prices You are competing against institutions with billions of dollars in resources to gather data that provides them with an edge Some of the smartest people in the world have failed at this. Just look at Isaac Newton, who lost his net worth in the South Sea Bubble Not to mention, even if you are a good investor, your hit rate is probably closer to 55% at best. There will be numerous failures along the way, and many picks that will turn out to be completely wrong Need a certain type of personality to look at all of these odds and say that you will still try to win anyway9h ago12K21712142572.43%
Software engineers realizing that an AI will now check the code written by AI to run the business headed by a CEO who has no idea how to open a PDF https://t.co/mUfHKto6rf17d ago12K131460111.24%
First meeting when someone accidentally calls it "artificial intelligence" instead of "super intelligence" https://t.co/sMKzqPFU8b https://t.co/H6lrgcPM4efrozen18d ago12K120410131.13%
The single chart that explains why young people are moving towards socialism in America If home prices were indexed to wage growth of young workers, the average home in America today would cost $281K. Instead, the average home today costs $415K, nearly 48% higher. Wage growth has simply not kept up with housing inflation. For far too many people, the American dream of buying a house and starting a family feels completely out of reachfrozen6d ago12K19018211442.33%
Many such cases https://t.co/NWpM0QlqOUfrozen16d ago12K2431321132.32%
Web devs enjoying their new found free time https://t.co/suz8jdmI2Yfrozen14d ago12K3223080.39%
Prediction markets are faster and more accurate than voting polls, as we saw time and time again during the national elections and mayoral races across major cities The reason is quite simple: when there is real capital and money on the line, truth discovery happens much faster than when you just aggregate opinions This is also the exact reason why public markets are a better consensus mechanism than private valuations As we saw during the SPAC crazy and many IPOs since then, private market valuations are often blurred with individual incentives and structures that prevent true price discovery The same can be said about polls vs prediction marketsfrozen22d ago12K4416060.49%
Investors who were heavy in tech looking at the market this morning https://t.co/erPedTjDOsfrozen7d ago11K3631772263.63%
Hating on socialism while also asking the government for a $5K handout from taxpayer dollars You literally cannot make this up https://t.co/jt7sza1TL9frozen18d ago11K3188151113.09%
A collection of BoringBiz primers for restructuring and distressed investing 🧵 1/ Restricted Groups https://t.co/9StXrrM7AJ2d ago11K14214501893.07%
A lot of people have the misconception that you need to be fishing in small caps and emerging markets in order to outperform the market In reality, you could have bought some of the largest companies in the world near their lows during 2022 and outperformed the S&P 500 by many basis points4d ago11K125463241.47%
With the funding environment where it is, there is an incredible opportunity for cash grab in the short term for most founders VCs are closing their eyes and investing in everything and anything related to AI, in the prayers that they don’t miss out on the next Anthropic, Cursor or Rogo The real test for companies will be turning down the short term maximalism to focus on generating long term value for shareholders and society as a whole It is a lot easier said than done, particularly when you have million dollar checks being thrown at your face every single day Many young founders will make the error of inviting the wrong type of investor in their cap stack or accepting dilution beyond anything they need to Even worse, many will overspend on projects and on hiring teams they don’t actually need to accomplish the long term vision of the company My two cents of advice 1. If you must, grab the money while the sun is shining in this funding environment, but be very careful of who you take on as an investor 2. Be intentional and ask yourself if VC funding is actually the solution for achieving your vision. Many companies and founders would be much better off if they bootstrapped their way to profitability 3. Squeeze down your burn wherever possible. Don’t hire for the sake of hiring. Don’t pursue new verticals for the sake of doing it This environment won’t last forever. At some point, there will be a break on the pedalfrozen13d ago11K86391271.15%
Michael Burry when he sees something bearish about AI: “Sell” Michael Burry when he sees something bullish about AI: https://t.co/zuVRCIoN44frozen10d ago11K80640100.92%
POV you just told a SaaS investor that paying 15x ARR for a company with no system of record or ownership of data might not be the best idea https://t.co/uZFqhXqrtAfrozen8d ago11K97570231.22%
How it feels to just refuse to do IT compliance training modules at work https://t.co/VLvgc3odtufrozen13d ago11K373124083.73%
POV the bonus hits your bank account right after you told everyone you were going to quit this year https://t.co/nf0AgFPwqkfrozen18d ago11K205142082.16%
Michael Burry watching investors make money while he turns bearish for the 69th time this year https://t.co/bewj6PsqBUfrozen15d ago10K20985062.19%
Watching everyone who was an expert on corporate espionage through recording devices in board rooms become an expert on neoclouds and credit default swaps this week https://t.co/H3Mkp7bflsfrozen5d ago10K183360101.97%
Fully convinced that a lot of our political leaders would have incredible careers as comediansfrozen6d ago10K7123010.77%
Me staring at my first cup of coffee in the morning https://t.co/pE89NJSC0hfrozen28d ago10K15673041.69%
Charlie Munger on quality of management when evaluating a business “Averaged out, betting on the quality of the business is better than betting on quality of the management team. In other words, if you have to choose one, bet on the business momentum, not on the brilliance of the manager”1d ago9.7K1961680723.00%
People who joined a private equity firm before 2020 https://t.co/aIyj8cf8gnfrozen27d ago9.7K20524072.24%
Many such cases https://t.co/1WnXhotbcPfrozen6d ago9.7K291240113.18%
Software investors trying to deploy capital in verticals that OpenAI or Anthropic won’t touch in the next 18 months https://t.co/ghiaUgOrQ8frozen19d ago9.7K15746081.81%
This year has been a story of multiple compression in markets S&P earnings estimates are up +30%, while the index itself has only returned +12% year to date The reason is simple. Investors are worried about how sustainable these earnings really are Forward P/E of the index has gone from 22x to 19x over the course of the year. Investors are putting less value on the same dollar of earnings vs at the beginning of the yearfrozen14d ago9.6K10035191.23%
When I win the pls fix dot com Excel challenge, there will be signs. @msexcel #MicrosoftPartner https://t.co/TrzEJS8pKefrozen5d ago9.6K3013060.42%
“They have no idea that I made this using a leading edge frontier visual model” https://t.co/7oal4FKjf1frozen6d ago9.5K9143061.09%
"Dad, what was it like when mortgage rates were 2.5% in 2021?" https://t.co/wpc5Hf3Lmyfrozen15d ago9.3K212711162.54%
People dining alone has gone up exponentially in America This has dire second and third order consequences, many of which are starting to show amongst the younger generation https://t.co/uB6igC6Ewdfrozen15d ago8.8K9268181.31%
People who bet on red once and won are very likely to bet red again Simple psychology2d ago8.6K3803110.50%
Analysts who spent years learning excel shortcuts realizing that the skill is going to be useless in about 18 months https://t.co/afAHVRIgab6h ago8.6K26410123133.51%
Railroad investors from the 1800s looking at big tech companies spending on capex like a drunken sailor https://t.co/UL555wAGdwfrozen7d ago8.5K122660341.97%
In America, we finance GPUs with equity investments from the GPU seller so that the customer can buy GPUs and rent them back to the same companies that backstopped the financing for the GPUs https://t.co/TSDWO6n1Lh2d ago8.2K1555111122.25%
Back in our day, getting funding from VCs used to actually mean something https://t.co/dRYlqY6TbNfrozen20d ago8.1K18264032.41%
The Uber driver looking at me while I fly my Tesla above them https://t.co/6F3vV9QwR1frozen6d ago8.1K19554322.58%
Despite incredible returns on the S&P 500 this year, alternative asset managers such as Blackstone, Apollo and KKR have all seen their share price decline Combination of poor exits on the private equity side and BDC mark fears on the credit side creating a perfect cocktail of fear around these names If the rate environment improves or private credit ends up being a sustainable asset class, this might be an incredible opportunity to be a buyer3d ago7.7K63280121.10%
Prediction: we see all the value accrue in agentic application layers and harnesses that make existing foundation models better vs. the foundation models themselves Anthropic and OAI will need to fight an upstream battle to become vertically integrated https://t.co/0Rmw01pjiHfrozen13d ago7.7K46570180.99%
Netflix shareholders looking at the stock right now https://t.co/h2bybIGiRR2d ago7.6K11205171.64%
Adobe investors watching video creation get automated by yet another startup https://t.co/AfceJShItqfrozen9d ago7.6K57150100.96%
The hyperscalers have now issued more bonds in just 7 months of 2026 than all of 2023-2025, combined https://t.co/cJGxqyowqX https://t.co/EdfvTX5zOMfrozen8d ago7.5K781510241.57%
Majority of the AUM growth at large alternative asset managers has been driven by credit over the last decade Of the $3.4 trillion addition in net AUM, roughly $1.9 trillion has come from credit. That is 55% of all net AUM growth. The next largest category is real estate, which has driven 16% of the growth. Flagship private equity itself has only contributed 14% of the AUM growth3d ago7.3K72390231.46%
David Friedberg says that we are entering the birth of a new religion devoted to believing in the consciousness of AI "The thing about consciousness is that it cannot be derived from logic and pure mathematics. It is a debate. You can have a rich debate with anyone over consciousness. You can't prove it or disprove it. So in scientific discipline, when you have a new idea that is not proven or disproven, it is a theory. Outside of science and mathematics, this is what we would call a belief system. Belief systems are things you have to believe in the absence of logic and empiricism to derive the truth of something. Belief systems are the foundation of things like religion. The idea that you can describe AI as being conscious is essentially the creation of a new belief system. It does not spread via proof. It spreads via narrative."frozen12d ago7.2K3559070.78%
Gen Z and young millennials buying protein for 50% of the price while still not being able to afford a home @maxjmeier @AonicClub https://t.co/Eajdqpvelgfrozen9d ago7.1K5314030.85%
All the buzz around AI video generation makes me think that the boomer generation is absolutely cooked If you literally go on Facebook right now, you have hundreds of boomers reacting and commenting seriously on clearly AI generated content The scariest part is that boomers are the most politically active class, and they also control most of the government offices in our country Imagine handing over the fate of future generations to a class that can’t differentiate between what is AI and what is real Cookedfrozen14d ago7.1K41260110.85%
https://t.co/RoJJrMJDWjfrozen15d ago6.7K7422031.21%
“New foundation model for robotics and simulation agents” https://t.co/uXaGFJmryzfrozen14d ago6.7K3812020.64%
FICO starts off this week +11% after everyone on FinTwit turned bearish on it last week Tale as old as time https://t.co/iY8YNMdOitfrozen10d ago6.7K3705010.64%
Rice futures are +77% YTD and one of the best performing assets this year We should have been buying rice instead of the S&amp;P 500 https://t.co/45x5SpWzqvfrozen10d ago6.6K97440101.74%
Software engineers watching another coding model drop https://t.co/q9QfkYl25o1d ago6.4K2512030.49%
Are the picks and shovels AI infrastructure stocks in the room with us right now? https://t.co/aSkXILl6dp4h ago3.6K6833012.06%
“They have no idea I just won the Microsoft pls fix challenge” https://t.co/uaCafkZh9p @msexcel #MicrosoftPartner https://t.co/5c6WkaEB4M5d ago879803011.37%